Horse Racing: McMudder’s picks have a little spring in their step
Spring Fever. The first weekend race day of the year that makes it feel like Spring has arrived. Go to the races. Enjoy it. And focus on pregnancy? Yes, it’s that time of year when the hormones in mares naturally start flowing (as opposed to the artificially influenced cycles created by January 1 birthdates. . .) so the fillies and mares will be coming into season. Why do we care? Because if their focus is on finding a suitor and not on beating her peers around a track, you bet the wrong horse. This means that paddock handicapping comes into play. As for many things, finding the right balance of on the toes and not over the top is what you are looking for. In addition, look for fillies and mares holding good flesh and GOOD FEET. With all of the bad weather this Winter, feet on horses take a beating and the old adage applies, “no feet, no horse”.
Picks for March 9, 2019:
Sunny and warmer . . . finally.
Aqueduct Race 4
Starter allowance for older boys at 9 f. 1-Devine Dental is from Mick’s man Rob Atras who’s win rate at the Big A has sunk below 50% to - to 48%. He has a live one here coming off the claim. The pause is that he only wins at 14% first off the claim and few trainers are moving horses up off of Michelle Nevin. Instead look to the ultimate old pro, 2-Turco Bravo, to take this one by grinding the field down in the lane. Seeing a horse maintain form over an extended period is rally rare but this one has, to an extent. That extent is all that is needed here.
$10 W/P/S 2-Turco Bravo
Aqueduct Race 8 Tom Fool Stakes
4 and up older boys at 6f. A race for the fast and there is plenty of speed here. Last year’s winner, 3-Skyler’s Scramjet took a tough loss last out at 7f and gets back to the preferred 6f. Although many of these can win, no one is on a better form cycle than 5-Bavaro. Ignoring the company lines and focusing on the speed figures, this guy is all there and Linda Rice is excellent at getting horses to show up on their big days. Go with the horse YOU could have claimed 2 back for $25K!
$10 W/P/S 5-Bavaro
Laurel Race 1
$16K for 3 and up at 7f. Sometimes handicapping is easy. And it appears to be easy here. 4-Crush It is getting dropped in for a tag off of one poor race. This is either easy pickins or a complete trap. Don’t over think it.
$10 W/P/S 4-Crush It
Laurel Race 8
Starter allowance for older boys at 8f. This will be a tale of two races. Can any of the early speed see the distance out or will they just set it up for the closers? Obviously, you have 7 races to figure out today’s track bias before deciding. Mick, on the other hand, needs to decide RIGHT NOW. So the pick becomes the only horse that has shown the ability to do both. 4-Super Vision has won on the lead and from behind, has enough tactical speed to be well placed and gets the services of leading jockey Trevor McCarthy. As long as he doesn’t get off the back too far, he should be there at the end.
$10 W/P/S 4-Super Vision
Parx Race 3
$40K maiden 3-year-olds at 6f. The distinct advantage here goes to 5-Loan Me Your Ear since that one went faster and stayed on going a route last out. That added stamina should be the difference as Parx continues to resemble the Gobi desert many days. 31% trainer Ed Coletti helps as does leading rider Mychel Sanchez. The M/L is a gift.
$20 W/P/S 5-Loan Me Your Ear
Parx Race 7
Claiming $16K for older fillies and mares at 5 ½ f. 8-Bow Town Cat is taking a drop after 3 efforts in allowance company and the class relief will help after a really dull effort last out. But with so many in this race showing similar form, look for a price. Mick is settled on 4-Pinkout who is coming off a short break after running behind 8-Bow Town Cat last out when both were beaten by the in-form No Picnic. The value will be there.
$10 W/P/S 4-Pinkout
And now for some quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 9 Stymie Stakes
Older boys at a mile. 2-Sunny Ridge is being carefully managed for big races like this one and after going against tougher in the fall, he gets a fairly soft field for this level
Aqueduct Race 10 Gotham Stakes
3-year-old boys at 8f. Derby prep . . . if Jerry Hollendorfer is sending across the country, Mick is betting. 6-Instagrand until somebody finishes a race within 10 lengths of him.