Horse Racing: McMudder picks for Monday slop, check conditions

More on form cycles. With young horses it can be very difficult to determine what the true form cycle is since there is not enough race history. Is a bad race just a bad race or is it a harbinger of even worse performances? The way to address this, at least partially, is to look at the workouts, too. If the workouts are progressive and the races are progressive, the horse is progressive. This was just as true for Justify last year as it was for Never Enough Time in the 4th at Laurel on Sunday. Following the morning works on this one told a uniform story, she was getting better with distance and over time. The guess is that the last 5f work was simply to make sure she was all tightened up. And based on Sunday, she was. So look beyond just the races to determine the true form cycle.

Picks for March 4, 2019:

Good chance Monday is a big mess with snow and rain overnight and into tomorrow morning. At best it will be sloppy and at worst it will get cancelled. Editor’s note: Once again it seems as if the weather forecasters were worse than sports handicappers. It’s cold, dry and sunny in Philadelphia. Since McMudder was expecting slop, check track conditions before wagering. Updated Editor’s Note: Parx cancelled today’s card due to inclement weather. (Editor is 20 miles away and it’s very nice out. Oh well.)

Parx Race 1
$25K n3 claimer for older fillies and mares at 8f. 6-Silver Excess is the filly with the best off track form but she is very inconsistent. Certainly, no positive form cycle but rather a hit or miss kind of runner. At least second off a brief freshening is a good sign. The other option is 3-Stella B who comes from a stronger barn and won last out but at a much lower level. A repeat of the last race or of her best effort on the slop win here but she is very inconsistent, too.
$10 W/P/S 6-Silver Excess

Parx Race 7
$16K Claimer for older fillies and mares at 5 ½ f. 6-Bow Town Cat is the obvious choice here as she is dropping off good efforts and runs for Joe Taylor, a trainer with a 22% strike rate. But she will be short priced due to her prior off going efforts and the connections. Instead look at a form cycle play here. 7-Pinkout runs well on the off going, has two decent works since her last race but, most importantly, ran improving speed figures off the layoff and continues here at the same level as when she was beaten by 6-Bow Town Cat by only 1 ¼ lengths.
$10 W/P/S 7-Pinkout

And now for some quickies….

Parx Race 5
5 ½ f race for older fillies and mares for $5k n1y. The battle of the inept, or at best the formerly ept. Look to get a price with 1-Dreams Are Pazible for trainer Scott Lake. He is very good on the second start in his barn and this one has been solid on the off going except last Summer at Saratoga.

Parx Race 8
Starter for older boys at 8f 70. 4-Hodor won this race last out with the same pilot and at the same distance so the short odds are deserved. Look to beat him with a horse that is super consistent, likes the off going and will pay big, 5-Lost Iron.