Horse Racing: McMudder predicts another wet Saturday - and winners
Connections. It’s more about who you than what you know. Sometimes that adage works for horse racing, too. Although there are lots of hard working people on the backstretch, including trainers that have performed admirably for decades, a very few trainers seem to always have the best horses. Why? It’s about who they know. Usually, it’s about relationships with owners willing to buy the very best. This creates a small cadre of must-have trainers. Obviously winning Eclipse Awards helps but it starts before that by actively recruiting top connections to make sure the top horses find their way to you. But these relationships can go for decades. Kiaran McLaughlin has trained for Shadwell since he spent time in the Middle East. Chad Brown for Sheep Pond. While other owners have sought out the top trainer at the moment, China Horse Club with Bob Baffert, for example. How did Bob Baffert land the owner of Justify (and others)? By being Bob Baffert. By being open and frank and well . . . competent. Really, really competent.
Picks for March 2, 2019:
Mick is contemplating dropping the weather section since the accurate prediction over the last month is . . . the weather will change. It looks like rains will hold off giving dry tracks but the front may move causing everyone to get rain.
Aqueduct Race 3
$30K Maiden three year old boys at 6 ½ f. 1-Lone Pioneer makes Mick’s job very easy today. He has the only trainer that matters. As Mick stated last week, thou shalt bet Rob Atras’ horses until one of them gets beaten. Hasn’t happened on Mick’s watch so looking for form reversal from the last effort. Could any other trainer be 3/1 on the M/L with a horse that got beat AT THIS LEVEL by 28 lengths? Not a chance.
$10 W/P/S 1-Lone Pioneer
Aqueduct Race 8 Bernardini Stakes
4 and up older boys at 10 ½ f. A race for the fit and stamina enabled. Guess who has a horse in here? It’s Rob Atras with 6-Royal Albert Hall! Can a 7-year-old making only his third start on dirt when his pedigree and past form scream TURF actually win? A horse coming out of a n3l race that he lost? A horse that could not win any recent starts at ZIA PARK? (can you find Zia Park? Is it near Royal Albert Hall?). So Mick is picking . . . somebody else. OK, Mick told you he would not pick against Rob Atras until he lost but a Stakes race is too far to continue that promise. Rob Atras has gotten here by dominating claiming races, especially at the lower end. This race has quality horses that have proven the ability to get a route distance. Instead, this race is about welcoming Kendrick Carmouche back to the saddle in NY. His layoff from a broken leg in the fall seemed to last longer than expected. He should be fit and rested and ready to get 4-Shalako to the winner’s circle.
$10 W/P/S 4-Shalako
Laurel Race 1
$12.5K for 3 year old fillies at 6 f. Sometimes handicapping is easy. And it appears to be easy here. 4-Mimic is getting dropped . . . off a cliff. Rudy Rodriguez sends horses to Maryland for two reasons; to win races and to get claimed. This one should do both. Even in her last race where she got clobbered, her speed figure still compares fairly well with this field. Throw that effort in the slop out and her race two back wins here by 10. For the spectators, the key will be to watch jockey Trevor McCarthy. If he is turning for home and has not moved on the horse, you should feel good.
$10 W/P/S 4-Mimic
Laurel Race 8
MD bred allowance for older boys at 5 ½ f. This will be a tale of two races. The two outside horses 6-Sonic Boom E Jet and 7-Nico Bree N Teej want the lead and will break from the outside with some desire to get it. Everyone else wants those two to lock into a speed duel so they can pick up the pieces. Who is most likely to pick up the pieces? It looks like 1-Torch of Truth should be there but early pace will be the key. If the leaders go out in sub 23/46 fractions, then there will be pieces spread all over to pick up, just like last time when 1-Torch of Truth went by 6-Sonic Boom E Jet in the lane.
$10 W/P/S 1-Torch of Truth
Parx Race 1
$20K maiden 3-year-olds at 6 ½ f. This appears to be a two horse race, 4-Equus Novus and 5-Loan Me Your Ear. The distinct advantage goes to 5-Loan Me Your Ear since that one went faster and stayed on going a route last out. That added stamina should be the difference as Parx continues to resemble the Gobi desert many days. 31% trainer Ed Coletti helps as does leading rider Mychel Sanchez. Any odds above 2/1 should get a doubled bet.
$20 W/P/S 5-Loan Me Your Ear
Parx Race 7
Claiming $10K for older boys at 8f 70. What a great race! Many potential candidates in here including, just about everybody. The top form horses, 2-Pumpkin Star and 4-Printer both deserve consideration but will get bet down. The price play is 3-Champagne Chuck who pressed the pace last out but stayed on well. He gets a slight distance break here and should get a softer pace up front. Maybe the better bet is to lay odds on whether 4-Printer gets claimed for the fifth time in six races?
$10 W/P/S 3-Champagne Chuck
And now for some quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 5
NY bred $25K at 6f for older fillies and mares. It’s that man again. Rob Atras with a claimer. Bet 3-Promise Me Roses and go pick up a bouquet.
Parx Race 8
$50K open allowance for older boys at 8f. Awesome race that could be a stakes race at many tracks on many days. Having watched 1-Red Razzo run last race in person, he is an easy choice here. His win was visually stunning as the jockey asked but once and he ran by the field. New barn today but same pilot should get the same result and pay well.