Horse Racing: Garrity’s got stakes race picks across the country

There's a light stakes schedule today, but this is normal: it's the last Saturday in February, and it's the calm before the storm: March is a very busy month in racing, with smorgasbords of stakes races, including big-deal cards like Fountain of Youth day at Gulfstream March 2 (next Saturday), Santa Anita Handicap day the week after, and the Dubai World Cup at the end of the month. And that's not even counting the heating up of the Kentucky Derby trail: March is the month every year when the the road to the Derby starts to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

With that on the horizon, a bit of a respite is not only acceptable, but almost a relief: make sure your #2 pencils are sharpened, because you'll need them next month. And there is racing today: while they might not be Grade 1 races with multi-million dollar purses, there's a good lineup of very playable stakes -- and the action is from all over the country. As always, except where indicated otherwise, these picks are made for fast dirt and firm turf; with that out of the way, let's go.

We'll start in Hallandale Beach, Florida, where Gulfstream Park runs a trio of stakes today: the Melody of Colors and the Texas Glitter are both 5 furlong turf sprints restricted to three-year-olds; the former is for the fillies, the latter for the boys. Sandwiched in between these races, which go off as Races 9 and 12 on the card, is Race 11, the Hal's Hope, which is a Grade 3 featuring older males going a one-turn mile on the dirt. All came up with deep and competitive fields.

Race 9 The Melody of Colors (post time 3.58 pm Eastern) is an interesting race, more for what it lacks than what it has: These turf sprints are usually loaded with speed, and the lineup here is conspicuous for the collective lack of early zip. Because of this, we're going to take a shot with 3-Catch a Thrill: She won her debut on the sod chasing a very fast pace, and a repeat of that performance may put her on the lead, and she just might take them all the way. She gets top jock Jose Ortiz, who figures to use her speed, so we'll take her 8-1 odds all day long, and bet $10 to win on the nose of Catch a Thrill.

Race 11 The Hal's Hope (post time 4.38 pm Eastern) has a salty field of nine veteran runners; one could make a case for several of them. But we are going with 5-Quip: This 4-year-old has been away since last spring, when he was on the Kentucky Derby trail. He ran a disastrous race in the Preakness, finishing last in the slop, and has been away since. But he showed much ability last spring, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and finishing a good second in the Arkansas Derby, and the time off should have helped him. We'll take his 4-1 price, and we'll bet $10 to win on Quip. We also like 1-Tale of Silence (5-1) to complete the exacta: this horse is admirably consistent, and the one-turn mile suits him to a tee. We'll play a $5 exacta box, with runners 1 and 5, for a total bet of $10.

Race 12 The Texas Glitter (post time 5.28 pm Eastern), unlike the Melody of Colors, is filled with early speed: horses in here have run some very fast early fractions. One of these could steal the race on the front end, but we think that is unlikely: there's enough speed in here that there will likely be several horses vying for the lead. This sets the race up for a runner coming from just off the pace, and we think that runner is 5-Standup. He should be moving late, so we will take his 3-1 price, and bet $10 to win on him.

There's one stakes race at Oaklawn Park today, the Downthedustyroad Stakes, a six-furlong dirt sprint for Arkansas-bred three-year-old fillies. The forecast in Hot Springs calls for rain today, so we are going to play the race expecting a sloppy track. And we are going for a bomb: we like 2-Firewater Rocket, at 12-1. She's had time off since a pair of bad races last fall; after this freshening, we think she will improve. She has shown that she loves the wet going, as she won in a minor stakes race in the slop here at Oaklawn a year ago. We will try to light up the tote board here, and will bet $20 to win on Firewater Road -- but only if the track is sloppy.

Out in Arcadia, the locals are recovering from Thursday's crippling L.A. snowstorm by running the Buena Vista, a Grade 2 for older females at a mile on the turf. It goes off as Race 8, with a post time of 7:20 pm Eastern. With a surfeit of early-speed runners entered, a suicidal early pace is a virtual certainty, and this will set up the race for come-from-behinders. This makes 8/5 favorite, 9-Vasilika, a virtual certainty: the shape of this race looks like it was made to order for her and her running style. Moreover, she's been running against top-shelf competition, and seems to outclass the other runners -- and this is the best thing in handicapping, when the way a race will be run favors the horse who's the best anyway.

We also like 8-Elysea's World; we don't think she's good enough to beat the favorite, but she should complete the exacta. So we'll play the race as follows: $50 to win on Vasilika, a $20 cold exacta on the  Elysea's World combo (9-8), and in the trifecta, we'll play Vasilika on top and put Elysea's World in the spots underneath. That's two tickets, one 9-8-ALL, the other 9-ALL-8. Each of these trifecta tickets costs $8, for a total of $16.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.