BMW Championship Betting Guide: Scottie Scheffler Odds, Picks and Bellerive Country Club Preview

Scottie Scheffler is coming off the most lopsided win of his season, he’s got a 1,400-plus point cushion in the FedExCup, and the rest of the 50-man field at Bellerive Country Club is left playing for second place.

Quick take:

• Outright pick: Scottie Scheffler +300
• Why: He just won by 8 shots at TPC Southwind and has been the best long-iron player on the planet all year, which plays directly into a Bellerive setup that punishes anything short of elite ball-striking.
• The number to watch: Bellerive’s fairways narrow to roughly 26 yards wide at the 300-yard mark off the tee — precision off the tee decides this week more than raw length.

The BMW Championship returns to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis for the first time since 2008, when Camilo Villegas won there, and the club has been stretched out considerably since its last big moment in the spotlight — the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka closed at 16-under to beat Tiger Woods by two. This week’s setup plays 7,448 yards at par 70, 132 yards longer than that 2018 card, with tree-lined corridors that squeeze tight well before reaching the two monster par-5s (the 613-yard 8th and 624-yard 17th) that bookend the round.

This is also a no-cut, 50-player field — every one of the top 50 in FedExCup points tees it up Thursday, and every shot over four rounds either pushes a player toward East Lake or drops them out of the top 30 who advance to the Tour Championship. That bubble drama is arguably the sharpest subplot of the week, with Rickie Fowler sitting exactly 30th in points, clinging to the last transfer spot by a point and change over Gary Woodland.

Why the Board Looks So Lopsided

Scheffler opened as the overwhelming favorite the moment the St. Jude Championship ended, and sportsbooks haven’t budged much since. A quick look at the DraftKings promo code board shows him at +300, and FanDuel installed him just under 3-to-1 as well — both essentially unchanged from where he sat going into Memphis, even after an eight-shot demolition that was the largest margin of victory on Tour this season. Scheffler is the defending BMW champion too, having beaten Robert MacIntyre by two at Caves Valley last year, so this is now back-to-back title defenses at two different BMW venues.

Behind him, the market is deep and fairly flat. Rory McIlroy sits second in the odds at roughly +1300 to +1375 despite a rough week in Memphis — he finished 66th there and is chasing what would be a record fourth FedExCup title, but the books clearly still respect his ceiling on a big, tree-lined ballpark. Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Åberg both sit in the +1500 to +2000 range, with Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young bunched just behind them. Matt Fitzpatrick, who’s actually second in the FedExCup standings on the strength of three wins this season — including a playoff victory over Scheffler at the RBC Heritage — checks in around +2150 to +2350, arguably the most disrespected big name on the board given his form.

Contenders to Watch

Value Play and Sleeper Pick

If there’s a crack in the Scheffler-or-bust framing, it’s Matt Fitzpatrick. He’s beaten Scheffler head-to-head this year in a playoff, he’s won three times, and he’s built his season on precision iron play — exactly what a tight, tree-lined Bellerive setup rewards over pure bomb-and-gouge length. At north of 20-to-1, that’s a live top-10 or top-20 price for a player with this much recent hardware.

For a true sleeper, look at Jake Knapp. He’s sitting out at +3400 to +4000, well down the board, but he’s a big hitter who has shown he can go low in bunched leaderboards, and a 50-man no-cut field with soft-ish early scoring conditions (rain is in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday) tends to reward someone willing to be aggressive rather than play defense.

Bellerive’s par-5s at 613 and 624 yards are both reachable in two for the elite length players in this field — and both are legitimate birdie-or-better opportunities that can swing a card fast.

That’s the swing factor for anyone chasing Scheffler. The par-5s create separation, and length off the tee still matters even with fairways pinching tight in the landing zones. Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark both profile as players who can turn those two holes into three or four shots gained across a week, which is part of why neither is buried on the board despite modest recent finishes.

Rain showers are possible Wednesday and Thursday, which could soften greens that were completely rebuilt with bentgrass for this tournament. Soft, receptive Bellerive greens were part of what allowed Gary Woodland and Koepka to go so low in 2018 — worth watching if early-round scores start dropping fast.

This Week’s Best Bets

Scheffler is the play until he loses, full stop — the form, the course-fit and the FedExCup math all point the same direction. But with a board this deep, there’s real value in pairing him with a proven precision player in Fitzpatrick and a longer-shot upside swing in Knapp.

1. Outright: Scottie Scheffler +300
2. Top-10/Top-20: Matt Fitzpatrick +2150
3. Sleeper: Jake Knapp +3400

Scheffler’s the chalk for a reason, but a ticket built around him, Fitzpatrick and Knapp covers the favorite, the sharpest form play, and the board’s best value in one shot.