FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Guide: Scottie Scheffler Favored, Sam Burns the Value Play at TPC Southwind

Scottie Scheffler enters the FedExCup Playoffs as the FedExCup points leader, the world No. 1, and the shortest-priced favorite of the entire PGA Tour season — yet he’s still chasing his first signature win of a playoff run that hasn’t gone his way the last two years.

Quick take:

• Outright pick: Scottie Scheffler +445
• Why: He leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total at 2.251 per round and is the best course fit in a field that’s otherwise wide open behind him
• The number to watch: Sam Burns hasn’t finished worse than T-28 in five straight trips to TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship opens the FedExCup Playoffs this week at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, running Aug. 13-16 with a $20 million purse on the line. This is a no-cut, 70-man field — only the top 70 in FedExCup points qualified — and it’s absurdly stacked: 19 of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are teeing it up on Ron Prichard’s tight, tree-lined par-70 layout.

Justin Rose returns as defending champion after outlasting Tommy Fleetwood and J.J. Spaun in a playoff last year, and he’s chasing something that hasn’t been done at this event since Ernie Els won back-to-back in 1996 and 1997. That storyline alone makes Rose worth knowing, even at long odds.

Where the Market Sees the Winner

Scheffler opened as the overwhelming favorite at +445, and the gap between him and the field says everything about how sportsbooks view this week. Rory McIlroy sits second at +970 — more than double Scheffler’s number — with Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood tied at +1950 rounding out the next tier. Sam Burns (+2000), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2100) and Cameron Young (+2150) fill out the group just behind them.

McIlroy’s price is notable mostly because of how far it’s drifted from his major-champion ceiling. He’s had a light season by his own standard and finished near the bottom of the field at TPC Southwind in 2024, which tempers some of the buzz around his +970 number despite a home-country major title earlier this year. Meanwhile, Scheffler’s spot atop the board isn’t just about talent — he’s the FedExCup points leader by nearly 800 points over the field, sits No. 1 in adjusted scoring average, and the market is pricing in a player who’s simply been the best in the world every week he’s shown up.

Contenders to Watch

Value Play and Sleeper Pick

Sam Burns is the play here, and it isn’t close. He’s carded five consecutive top-20 finishes, including three top-5s, and he’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach in every one of those starts. Add in that Burns finished T-5 at TPC Southwind two years ago and lost a playoff there in 2021, and you’ve got a player whose course history and current form are pointing the same direction at the same time.

Burns hasn’t finished worse than T-28 in five career trips to TPC Southwind.

That kind of floor matters at a venue that punishes bomb-and-gouge golf with narrow fairways and small green complexes — exactly the shot-shaping and approach precision Burns brings. He hasn’t won on Tour since March 2023, and a course this favorable, in a field this deep, is about as good a spot as he’ll get to end that drought.

For a longer-shot look further down the board, Collin Morikawa at +2600 fits the profile too. He’s never finished worse than 26th across six career starts at TPC Southwind, and his tee-to-green game — he paces the field in true strokes gained on approach this season — is tailor-made for a course that rewards accuracy over power. His short game has wobbled in three straight starts, which is the one real crack in the case, but the ball-striking foundation alone makes him worth a smaller stake in the outright or top-10 markets.

This Week’s Best Bets

Scheffler is the play at the top of the board — the best player in the world, the best course fit, and a man clearly hungry to finally close one out in these playoffs. Burns brings the form and course history to back a top-10 number, and Morikawa’s precision game gives this card a sleeper with real substance behind it, not just a name plucked from the bottom of the odds sheet. For bettors also weighing where to place these wagers, it’s worth comparing lines across a DraftKings promo code and other major books before locking anything in.

1. Outright: Scottie Scheffler +445
2. Top-10/Top-20: Sam Burns +2000
3. Sleeper: Collin Morikawa +2600

Scheffler’s ceiling is the highest in the field, but Burns’ course history makes him the safer source of value this week.