3M Open 2026 Odds, Picks and Best Bets: Scottie Scheffler Faces His Weakest Field of the Year at TPC Twin Cities
Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite in a thin 3M Open field at TPC Twin Cities, but defending champ Kurt Kitayama's course history makes him the sharpest angle on the undercard.
Scottie Scheffler is walking into a 144-man field at TPC Twin Cities this week where he’s the only player ranked inside the top 30 in the world, and the number that should scare the rest of the board is his tie for fourth at last week’s Open Championship on zero rest.
Quick take:
- Outright pick: Scottie Scheffler (+265 DraftKings, +240 FanDuel, +275 BetMGM)
- Why: He’s the only top-30 OWGR player in the field and just led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at a major five days ago.
- The number to watch: Kurt Kitayama’s T6-then-win track record at TPC Twin Cities the last two years.
The 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota for its eighth playing, running Thursday through Sunday, July 23-26, with most of the Tour’s other big names resting up before the FedExCup Playoffs begin. That’s left a 144-player field that’s thinner than usual by Tour standards, and it’s handed Scheffler about as clean a runway as he’ll ever get for a fifth win of the season. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama is back to defend the title he won at 23-under last summer, trying to become the first player to win the 3M Open twice.
Why the Board Looks So Lopsided
Scheffler opened at +265 at DraftKings (see the latest DraftKings promo code), +240 at FanDuel and +275 at BetMGM — all north of a 25% implied win probability for a field this deep, which tells you exactly how the market views this week. He comes in off a share of fourth at the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, where he led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green and ranked second in SG: Approach before a shaky putting week (he ranked 60th of 78 in SG: Putting there) cost him a real shot at defending that title. Behind him, Kitayama sits as the clear second choice at +2200 to +2500 depending on the book, with Maverick McNealy (+2350 to +2800), Hideki Matsuyama (+2800 to +3000) and Tom Kim (+2900 to +3500) rounding out the next tier. Nobody else is shorter than 3000-to-1.
TPC Twin Cities is a driving-distance course first and foremost — Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau and Kitayama himself have all won here, and the winning score has landed between 15-under and 24-under in six of the last seven playings. That profile should, in theory, work against Scheffler more than most winner’s-circle regulars, since he’s not the Tour’s longest hitter. But he ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and has added nearly two yards of ball speed since switching drivers in March, so the distance gap that used to separate him from bombers has closed. Combine that with a field this shallow and it’s hard to find the argument against him.
Contenders to Watch
| Player | Odds | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +265 | T4, Open Championship |
| Kurt Kitayama | +2200 | T40, Open Championship; defending champ |
| Maverick McNealy | +2350 | Consistent summer form, no missed cuts since May |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 | Steady top-25 form through the summer |
Value Play and Sleeper Pick
Kitayama’s case for the top of the board isn’t just sentimental. He was T6 here in 2024 before winning at -23 last year, and while his last three starts (33rd at the John Deere Classic, missed cut at the Canadian Open, T40 at the Open Championship) look middling on paper, his tee-to-green numbers tell a better story — he’s gained strokes in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 20 starts and ranked 11th on Tour in that category for the season entering the majors stretch. His short-course track record at TPC Twin Cities is the single most specific edge on the board this week.
Kitayama finished T6 here in 2024, then won the following year — the same golf course, back to back, trending the right direction.
That kind of course-specific data point matters more at a quirky, driver-heavy layout like this one than it does at a rotating major venue. For a top-10/top-20 look, Maverick McNealy at +2350 fits the profile — he’s found the top 20 in five of his last seven starts and his ball-striking numbers have trended up through the summer stretch. Further down the board, Sungjae Im stands out in the “winner without Scheffler” markets at roughly +4000; he opened the Open Championship in a share of the first-round lead and has quietly put together one of the more underrated summers on Tour without a marquee finish to show for it yet.
This Week’s Best Bets
Scheffler is the correct play at the top even at a short number, because a 144-man field missing nearly every other elite player in the world doesn’t come around often. Kitayama’s course history is the sharpest angle on the undercard, and McNealy offers a real top-20 look at a number that still pays.
- Outright: Scottie Scheffler +265
- Top-10/Top-20: Maverick McNealy +2350 (top-20)
- Sleeper: Sungjae Im +4000 (winner without Scheffler market)
None of this is complicated: bet the best player in the world in the weakest field he’ll see all year, and use Kitayama’s track record at this exact course to fill out the rest of the card.