Golf fans, welcome back to round 2 of the 2024 playoffs! Set in Castle Rock, Colorado; Castle Pines Golf Club welcomes back the top 50 players, looking for the top 30 to advance to the final round.
A lot of the golfers are set to advance to next week, but will we see anyone outside the top 30 make a splash this week? I am taking a slightly different approach this week, with less players in the field and less ideal odds available.
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The Course
The course is a par 72, in perhaps one of the most beautiful backdrops in golf. The twist this week is that the PGA Tour has not played this course since 2006. It is set over 8,130 yards, but plays like 7,000 due to the altitude, with 8 of the 18 greens protected by water. This course will draw the best to the top, no doubt.
Golfers who want to excel here must keep it in the fairway, keep the ball dry, and be strong ball strikers with solid approach shots. I am targeting players that are solid in multiple categories such as approach gained total, off the tee, and putting for this course.
Players that can position themselves well off the tee, ball strike well, and gain strokes on the green should be in a great position come Sunday.
Xander & Cantlay
Xander Schauffele has arguably been the best player in the world over the last few months and I am backing him to have another great finish. Xander is long off the tee and very accurate while ranking top 11 in all 4 strokes-gained categories. He has 13 top 10 finishes this season and finished last year with top 10 finishes.
Patrick Cantlay is one of the most well rested players on tour with the way his schedule has been over the last few months, and he is coming in on a roll. He has finished top 20 in 3 of his last 4 events, and has 7 top 20s this season. He has been excellent recently at strokes-gained total, tee-to-green, and around the green which will play big this weekend.
Scottie & Viktor
Backing Scottie Scheffler like we should have last week. He has finished top 10 in 17 of 19 events this season and I don’t see that changing, even with little to play for this weekend. He's the best player in the world this year holding 6 wins while ranking 1st in strokes-gained total and approach to green, while sitting 3rd in off the tee.
Viktor is a tricky one and I’m rolling the dice on him here. There have been small comparisons to Valhalla and the Memorial courses, where he finished 3rd and 15th earlier this season. He has been off and on all season but I believe he is coming into great form, coming off a T30 at the Olympics and a T2 last week.
He finished last season playing maybe the best on tour and he may be trending that direction once more. He sits 25th in strokes-gained total, 8th off the tee, and top 30 in approach and putting. There are only 50 players in the field and if he is clicking like last week he's most certainly a top 20 player.
Wyndham & Sam
Wyndham Clark may know this course better than any other player. He grew up in Colorado and has played this course reportedly over 30 times. Familiarity always breeds comfort, and he is coming in finishing top 15 in 4 of his last 5 events!
Clark is also familiar with this time of year, finishing top 15 in his last two tournaments last season. Clark sits 9th in strokes-gained total, 20th off the tee and 14th putting. If he can keep it rolling he should find the top 30.
Sam Burns is another one playing very well over the last few weeks while also playing well down the stretch last season with a couple top 20s. He comes in off of a T5 and T12, with 10 top 20s this season. He sits 17th in strokes-gained total and 21st in putting, the two he must do well at to finish strong.
Scott & Cantlay
Adam Scott may be one of the hotter players on tour, finishing top 20 in his last 3 events. He's been trending up in almost every category except approach.
With his distance off the tee, he has been able to gain strokes on the field, and his solid short game has kept him competitive. He should be able to navigate his way around this course and make a push to make next week. Cantlay read above.
Finau & Rai
Tony Finau from Utah is used to playing in elevation, and has been on a tear with his short game. If he can find it off the tee this week and stay out of trouble he should be able to have another strong finish as long as his putter’s still working. He has 7 top 20 finishes in his last 8 starts, while sitting 7th in strokes-gained total, and 2nd on approach.
Aaron Rai I will continue to ride. He has been a top 5 ball striker over the last few months, finishing top 20 in 7 of his last 8 starts. He is currently 4th in strokes-gained total, 36th off the tee, and 6th approach green. He's been one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, and if he can keep it all together, he should find the top 30.
Top Parlays:
Xander Schauffele Top 10 + Patrick Cantlay Top 20 (+128) DK
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 + Victor Hovland Top 20 (-103) DK
Wyndham Clark + Sam Burns Top 30 (-116) FD
Adam Scott + Patrick Cantlay Top 30 (-118) FD
Tony Finau + Aaron Rai Top 30 (-119) FD
Bonus Bets (Tournament Matchups)
Wyndham Clark over Russell Henley (-105) DK
Viktor Hovland over Ludvig Aberg (-120) Caesars
Sam Burns over Justin Thomas (-120) BetRivers