Golf fans, welcome back to another exciting event as we begin the 2024 PGA Tour playoffs with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Set at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, the top 50 golfers will move onto next week's BMW Championship. The playoffs consist of 3 tournaments, ending as always, at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. There is no better time to watch golf than now, buckle up, the next 3 weeks we will see some world class golf!
The course is a par 70, that can be somewhat demanding if you are not accurate off the tee, and very solid in strokes-gained tee-to-green, strokes-gained approach, and strokes-gained putting. There is water on over half of the holes on this course and golfers will be targeting more narrow fairways. Avoiding danger off the tee will be more rewarding than driving distance, so accuracy off the tee will be critical to success.
The greens are what most discuss about this course, they house champion bermuda grass and are on the smaller side of greens compared to the rest of the tour. The greens are fast and solid putters will stand out in this event. This course will lend to the top ball strikers this week, and I targeted those specific traits, along with the strokes-gained mentioned previously.
Wow, has Rai been spectacular this season! Now we catch him coming off his first PGA Tour win, can he keep his form after such a big accomplishment? I think he can! Rai has been in fantastic form over the last 7 weeks. He has finished in the top 20 in 6 of those weeks, finishing T75th at The Open, I will not fault him.
Rai is the exact player that fits the mold for my specific course targets. He ranks 4th in strokes-gained total, 34th off the tee, 6th in approach to green, and 51st in putting. Even sitting outside of the top 50 in strokes-gained putting, he still sits 4th in scoring average.
His ranking of 2nd in driving accuracy on tour should leave him in good positions to strike these greens where he sits 4th in greens in regulation and 31st in proximity to the holes. If he is on his game, he is a no brainer at plus money.
While Tommy Fleetwood sits in good position to move onto the next round, you just never know and he currently sits 32nd. If he wants to improve his position, this may be the course to suit him. Fleetwood finished T3 here last year and had a T4 in the 18-19 season.
He knows this course and seems to rise to the occasion in big moments. Fleetwood is coming off a silver medal in the Olympics and has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 5 events. He sits 35th in strokes-gained total, 8th in driving accuracy, 46th off the tee, and 67th in putting. If he can stripe these greens, leaving himself in good positions, he can finish strong again!
Look this was a spot I liked before the news broke that he will be without his caddie as their passport was robbed and could not find a way through to the US. I am still banking on one of the tour's top players this season, in very familiar territory. Another golfer who had a tremendous Olympics, Hideki finished with the bronze medal and looked very solid all 4 rounds.
Hidecki has good course history finishing T16 last season, T2 in 20-21, and T20 in 19-20. While course history is not everything, familiarity with how to navigate this course can help finish in a higher position. He ranks 7th in strokes-gained total, 40th off the tee, and 33rd approach to green. He also ranks 29th in proximity to the hole and when he misses, he ranks 5th in scrambling.
Hideki is a very good ball striker which will be at a premium at this course. Coming off that 3rd place finish he has 7 top 20 finishes this season in 16 starts, hitting almost 50%. We will see how much missing his caddie will impact his play this weekend.
DON’T miss my Bonus Bet below, I believe it has a very good chance to hit. Rory has a T3, T12, T4 at this course and is coming off his first missed cut of the year. His 5th place showing at the Olympics gives me confidence to back him here. I believe he wants to have a big bounce back on tour and what better place than a familiar one.
Colin Morikowa also has a good history at this course, finishing T13, T5, 26, T20. Morikowa and Rory are both two of the better ball strikers on tour not named Scottie or Xander. Putting these two together to finish top 20 is a risk, but one worth taking for + money.
Almost all of my PGA bets have been on Bet365 in recent weeks, they by far have the best lines in the industry for Golf, so if you have them, use them! If you do not, go to www.eatwatchbet.com navigate to the Sportsbooks page and check out their Deposit Matches!
Aaron Rai Top 20 (+120) Bet365
Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 (-120) Bet365
Hideki MatsuyamaTop 20 (-130) Bet365
2-Leg Parlay: (+113) Bet365
Colin Morikawa Top 20
Rory McIlroy Top 20
GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NH/NJ/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY), (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). Must be 21+ (18+ KY/WY).