College Football Week 0 Preview: TCU-UNC, USC Opener, Memphis-UNLV Odds and Best Bets

College football is finally back, and Week 0 wastes no time delivering a stacked Saturday slate on August 29. Bill Belichick makes his second-season debut across the Atlantic, Lincoln Riley and Jayden Maiava open a playoff-caliber USC campaign at home, and two Group of Five heavyweights collide in Las Vegas in a game that could carry real postseason weight by December. Throw in North Dakota State’s first-ever FBS snap and there’s no shortage of angles for bettors to attack on the season’s opening weekend.

TCU-North Carolina Headlines an Overseas Opener

The season kicks off in unconventional fashion with North Carolina and TCU squaring off at Aviva Stadium in Dublin for the Aer Lingus College Football Classic (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN). TCU opened as a touchdown favorite and the number has held firm, with the Horned Frogs sitting at -7.5 and the total set at 47.5. Moneyline prices have TCU around -300 to -325, with North Carolina out to roughly +260 on a neutral field.

This is Bill Belichick’s second season in Chapel Hill after a rocky 4-8 debut, and the Hall of Fame NFL coach now has a full offseason of roster-building behind him heading into a true road test with zero home-field cushion. Sonny Dykes’ TCU squad, by contrast, is the more proven commodity, and both teams are breaking in new starting quarterbacks, which is part of why the total has settled in the high 40s rather than pushing toward 55 or 60. Neither staff has had a live look at how their new signal-caller performs under pressure, and that uncertainty is baked into a number that reflects a competitive game rather than a blowout.

Sharp bettors should note that prediction markets have been even more lopsided than the sportsbook: TCU’s implied win probability on Kalshi sits around 74%, notably higher than what the -325 moneyline implies once vig is removed. That gap suggests modeled markets see this as a more comfortable TCU win than the spread alone lets on, even with a true neutral-site setup.

Lincoln Riley and Maiava Open Big at the Coliseum

USC, sitting at No. 14 in the preseason AP poll, opens Year 5 under Lincoln Riley by hosting San Jose State at the LA Memorial Coliseum (3:00 p.m. ET, NBC). The Trojans are massive -38.5 favorites with a total in the 60 to 61.5 range, and for good reason: quarterback Jayden Maiava is back after a 2025 season in which he led the Big Ten in passing with 3,711 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 65.8% completion, adding six rushing scores on top of it.

Riley is 5-0 in season openers at USC, going 4-1 against the spread in those games, and while the Trojans have never covered a number this large against San Jose State specifically, their two most recent meetings resulted in wins of 30-7 and 56-28. San Jose State counters with its own new starter in Luke Weaver, who takes over a Spread-N-Shred attack that will test USC’s defense with tempo even if the talent gap is significant. Week 0 openers can be sloppy on both sides, and with a number this large, a backdoor cover for San Jose State is a live outcome if USC pulls its starters early with the game in hand.

Memphis-UNLV: A Group of Five Playoff Measuring Stick

The nightcap of the day sends Memphis to Allegiant Stadium to face UNLV (10:00 p.m. ET, FOX) in what might be the single most consequential Group of Five game of opening weekend. UNLV is favored by 5.5 to 6 points with the total sitting between 56.5 and 57.5, and both programs enter the year considered top contenders in their respective leagues — Memphis in the American, UNLV in the Mountain West — with real College Football Playoff implications riding on how this one shakes out.

Quarterback uncertainty runs through both sidelines. Memphis has rotated Marcus Stokes and Air Noland throughout fall camp without naming a starter, while UNLV brings in Jackson Arnold, the former five-star recruit who started at both Oklahoma and Auburn before landing in Las Vegas, to battle returning backup Alex Orji. The clearer strength on the field belongs to UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas, who rushed for 1,036 yards a season ago and remains the offense’s focal point regardless of who wins the quarterback job. Containing Thomas on early downs will be the top priority for a Memphis defense that otherwise brings back a mostly intact core under coordinator Lance Guidry.

With Memphis breaking in a new coaching staff and a transfer-heavy roster against a UNLV team with continuity at the skill positions, the home team’s stability gives it a real edge, though the number has been debated among modelers, with some power ratings pegging this closer to a field goal than a full touchdown. Bettors shopping for the best number on this one should compare lines across multiple books, since a game with this much line movement potential rewards early action — a DraftKings promo code is one place to check for an updated opening line before kickoff.

North Dakota State’s First FBS Test

Elsewhere on the slate, North Dakota State plays its first game as a full FBS program when it hosts Jacksonville State at the Fargodome (5:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN), and it’s a fitting opponent — a rematch of the 2015 FCS national championship game. NDSU is favored by 7 points with the total set at 46.5 to 47.5 after going 12-1 last season and extending its postseason streak to 16 straight years at the FCS level before making the jump to the Mountain West.

The Bison return three starters on the offensive line and added Kansas transfer Kene Anene at right tackle, giving them a foundation to lean on in a game that carries genuine unknowns given the level jump. Jacksonville State, still adjusting to a long road trip to Fargo, represents one of the tougher openers NDSU could have drawn for this milestone, and a tighter-than-expected final score wouldn’t be a shock given how early it is in both programs’ seasons.

This Week’s Best Bets

Here’s how the value shakes out across the marquee matchups on this opening Saturday of the season.

• TCU vs. North Carolina: TCU -7.5
• USC vs. San Jose State: Under 60.5
• Memphis vs. UNLV: UNLV -5.5
• Jacksonville State vs. North Dakota State: North Dakota State -7

Week 0 is always a guessing game with new coaches, new quarterbacks and untested depth charts, but the favorites in three of these four spots come with either a clear talent edge or a continuity advantage that should hold up even through the rust of an opener.