Group of Five Best Bets: Boise State Leads the 2026 College Football Playoff Race
Boise State leads a wide-open Group of Five Playoff race at +675, but James Madison, UTSA, UNLV and Memphis are all bunched behind. Here's the best bet.
Boise State sits alone atop the Group of Five Playoff market at +675, but the gap between the Broncos and the pack says this race is wide open heading into the 2026 season.
Quick take:
- Pick: Boise State +675 (BetMGM) to make the College Football Playoff
- Why: Same starting QB and head coach for a third straight year, a soft path to the new-look Pac-12 title, and a marquee home date with Memphis to build a resume
- The number to watch: Boise’s next four closest challengers are all bunched at +1000 to +1150 — this market has no clear No. 2
The Group of Five Playoff spot has produced two very different outcomes in its first two years of existence. Boise State rode the format to a 3-seed in 2024 before falling to Penn State 31-14, while Tulane snuck in as the 11-seed last year and was outclassed by Ole Miss 41-10. Bettors have taken note of both extremes — Boise’s price reflects genuine respect for a program that’s been here before, while the rest of the board is priced like nobody’s fully earned trust yet.
Where the Market Stands on the G6 Race
Boise State opened as the runaway favorite at +675, but the drop-off to the second tier is steep. James Madison, UTSA and UNLV are all lined at +1000, with South Florida (+1100) and first-year FBS program North Dakota State (+1150) not far behind. From there, the board thins out fast — Army (+1350), Memphis and Navy (both +1450), and Tulane (+1900) round out the contenders with a real case, before the odds balloon into pure lottery-ticket territory.
Top Contenders
| Team | Odds | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | +675 | Returning QB Maddux Madsen, HC Spencer Danielson, favorite in new-look Pac-12 |
| James Madison | +1000 | Consistent Group of Five power, but market projections see modest regression |
| UTSA | +1000 | QB Owen McCown back for a fifth year, American Conference favorite by some books |
| UNLV | +1000 | Flirted with G6 relevance in recent seasons, Mountain West contender |
| Memphis | +1450 | Transfer-portal QB battle (Air Noland vs. Marcus Stokes), rebuilt o-line concerns |
| Tulane | +1900 | 2025 G6 Playoff participant, but priced as a longer shot after that blowout loss |
Why Boise State Is the Clear Play
Boise State returns Madsen for a third full season as the starter under Danielson, the same pairing that got the Broncos into the four-team field in 2024. Continuity like that is rare at the Group of Five level, where roster turnover through the transfer portal usually resets a program’s outlook every offseason. Boise also brings back both lead backs from a year ago — Dylan Riley (1,125 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Sire Gaines (811 yards, 11 touchdowns) — giving the offense a proven foundation, while pass rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan returns to anchor the defensive front.
The schedule sets up a clean résumé path. Boise opens as a significant underdog on the road against Oregon, which does no damage to the Broncos’ Playoff case since it’s a true road test against Power Four competition. The date that actually matters comes September 12, when Memphis visits Boise for what shapes up as the signature non-conference game on this side of the bracket. A road trip to Fresno State in October is the other notable hurdle, but nothing on the slate looks insurmountable for a team picked to be the class of the new-look Pac-12.
Boise’s nearest competition in the odds is priced 33% longer — the market isn’t just picking a favorite, it’s picking a tier of one.
That gap matters. In a field this shallow, paying a modest premium for the team with a returning quarterback, a returning coaching staff, and a soft conference ceiling is a defensible way to attack this market. Betting the field against Boise means betting on unproven quarterback situations at nearly every other contender.
Memphis, for what it’s worth, is the most interesting fade-or-follow decision behind Boise. The Tigers bring in Ohio State and Colorado running back Dallan Hayden as a legitimate weapon, but the quarterback race between transfers Air Noland and Marcus Stokes remains unsettled, and Memphis lost several offensive linemen to the portal this offseason, including multiple Power Four transfers. That’s a real swing factor for a team priced at +1450 in the G6 field and as the fourth choice at +600 in a loaded American Conference behind Navy, UTSA and East Carolina.
The Best Bet
Boise State’s continuity, schedule and recent Playoff track record make it the most reliable price on the board relative to the shallow field behind it.
- Pick: Boise State +675 to make the College Football Playoff
- Value alternative: UTSA +1000, with returning DraftKings promo code offers making a small stake on the Roadrunners cheap value if Owen McCown delivers another big season
Until the market shows a clear second option, the smart approach is Boise State as the anchor bet, with a small side bet on a longer shot like UTSA or Memphis to round out the group.