Preseason Top-25 Win Totals: Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Headline Part 2 of the Board
A deeper look at preseason Top-25 win total odds for 2026 CFB, from Ohio State and Georgia at 9.5 wins down to value plays like Clemson and Kansas State.
The preseason Top 25 is loaded with win total markets that look obvious on the surface — until you dig into schedules, and a handful of national title contenders are sitting right on the number oddsmakers expect the public to bet blindly.
Quick take:
- Pick: Ohio State Over 9.5 (-165 BetMGM)
- Why: Defending contender with a soft-enough non-conference slate and a Big Ten that graduated several of last year’s toughest matchups
- The number to watch: Ohio State is priced at -165 to clear 9.5 wins, implying oddsmakers see the Buckeyes closer to an 11-win team than a 9-win team
Part 1 of this series covered the marquee win totals at the very top of the board — Notre Dame’s 11.5, Indiana and Miami’s 10.5s, the teams nobody wants to bet against. This installment goes one tier deeper, into the 8.5-to-9.5 range where the value actually lives, because that’s where the vig gets uneven and the market hasn’t fully made up its mind.
Where the Board Stands Right Now
As of mid-August, BetMGM has BetMGM pricing Ohio State and Georgia both at 9.5 wins, with the Buckeyes getting the shorter over price at -165 compared to Georgia’s -190. Texas also sits at 9.5, priced closer to a coin flip at +110 on the over, which tells you the market still has real questions about Arch Manning’s touchdown-to-turnover consistency in his first full season as a starter. One tier down, Alabama, Penn State, BYU, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Utah are all clustered at 8.5, a number that’s produced some of the sharpest disagreements among handicappers this preseason.
Kalshi’s prediction market pricing tells a similar story from a different angle — Ohio State clearing 10 wins was trading around 64% implied probability in late July, notably higher than Alabama’s 9-win number at just under 54%. That gap matters: it suggests the smart money already views the Big Ten as top-heavy again, while the SEC’s depth is spreading win equity across more teams.
Top Contenders
| Team | Win Total | Over Odds | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 9.5 | -165 | Big Ten schedule softened after several 2025 opponents graduated tough games |
| Georgia | 9.5 | -190 | Heaviest preseason juice on the board — market thinks this number is light |
| Texas | 9.5 | +110 | Arch Manning’s first full season carries real variance |
| Penn State | 8.5 | -135 | Nittany Lions have underachieved preseason hype in each of the last two years |
| Alabama | 8.5 | -120 | Roster restocked, but SEC crossover slate stays brutal |
| Clemson | 7.5 | -135 to -145 | ACC’s deepest team on paper, priced as heavy favorite to clear the number |
The Case for Fading Penn State
Penn State’s 8.5 at -135 looks tempting on name recognition alone, but this is the same program that has now landed in the preseason Top 10 three straight years and finished with a resume shorter than expected each time. The Nittany Lions get Ohio State and Oregon-caliber opponents on the road again, and the -135 price is really a bet that this is finally the year the roster talent and schedule line up cleanly. History says bettors should demand a bigger discount before laying that kind of number.
Clemson tells almost the opposite story. At 7.5 wins and priced as low as -145 depending on the book, the Tigers are getting a number that undersells a roster many analysts consider the most talented in the ACC. Clemson’s non-conference slate is manageable, and the ACC’s middle tier has thinned out enough that 8-9 wins looks more likely than not for a program that still has real playoff ambitions.
Ohio State is priced nearly 25 cents shorter than Texas at the same 9.5-win number — the market’s clearest signal of which quarterback situation it trusts more.
That gap between Ohio State and Texas at an identical win total is the single most useful data point on this whole board. Both programs carry national title expectations. Only one is being priced like the market already assumes it clears double-digit wins with ease.
Kansas State’s 8.5 deserves a mention too — it’s the quietest number in this tier, and after a strong finish to last season, oddsmakers still haven’t fully priced in the Wildcats’ returning production on both lines.
Alabama sits in a strange middle ground. The roster overhaul under new leadership has generated buzz, and -120 to clear 8.5 wins is shorter than a program replacing this much production would normally command. The problem is the schedule, not the roster — the SEC’s crossover slate keeps sending Alabama into road environments that have bitten the program in each of the last two seasons. Bettors leaning under here aren’t betting against the talent, they’re betting against the calendar.
The Best Bet
The signal from both the sportsbook prices and Kalshi’s implied probabilities points the same direction: Ohio State’s schedule got materially easier, and the market hasn’t fully closed that gap despite the shorter price relative to Georgia and Texas.
- Pick: Ohio State Over 9.5 (-165)
- Value alternative: Clemson Over 7.5 (-135)
Both bets lean on the same idea — trust the roster and schedule data over name-brand hype, and this tier of the board still has room to move before kickoff.