Preseason Top-25 Win Totals, Part 1: Notre Dame, Texas Tech Lead the Board
Notre Dame sits alone at 11.5 wins on the 2026 college football board, but Texas Tech's heavy over-vig at 10.5 may be the sharpest number in the sport's top tier.
Notre Dame sits alone atop the 2026 college football win totals board at 11.5 games, and the sportsbooks are daring bettors to buy in on a near-perfect regular season.
Quick take:
- Pick: Texas Tech Over 10.5 (-220 at BetMGM)
- Why: Loaded roster, favorable Big 12 slate, and the number still hasn’t caught up to the hype
- The number to watch: Notre Dame’s 11.5 is the single highest win total on the board — a full game higher than anyone else
This is Part 1 of a two-part look at the top win totals across the sport heading into the 2026 season. The market has firmed up over the last few weeks — Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Miami, Indiana and Oregon anchor the top tier at 10.5 or better, with Ohio State, Georgia, Texas and Penn State stacked right behind at 9.5. Books have priced in last season’s results and returning talent, but there’s real value scattered throughout this group once you separate the teams built to sustain last year’s success from the ones due for a step back.
Where the Board Stands Right Now
As of August 13, win totals at BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars have Notre Dame highest at 11.5, with the Irish priced at plus-money on the over (+150 to +165 depending on the book) — a tell that the market expects the number to be a coin flip at best. Texas Tech’s 10.5 carries the heaviest vig of the group at -220 on the over at BetMGM, meaning books are far more confident in the Red Raiders clearing double digits than they are in Notre Dame doing the same at a higher number. Miami and Indiana, the two programs that met at the top of the sport a year ago, both sit at 10.5 as well, and Oregon rounds out the five-team top tier at the same number.
The next group down — Ohio State, Georgia, Texas and Penn State — all check in at 9.5, a number that reflects genuine respect without full buy-in on any of the four reaching double-digit wins. Ohio State carries the shortest odds of that group to clear the number (-165 on the over at BetMGM), while Texas is priced as an underdog to get there (+110 to +120 across books), a sign the market isn’t fully sold on the Longhorns matching last year’s output.
Top Contenders
| Team | Win Total | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 11.5 | Highest total in the sport; priced as underdog to clear it (+150/+165 over) |
| Texas Tech | 10.5 | Heaviest over-vig on the board (-220); market has real conviction here |
| Miami | 10.5 | Reigning runner-up returning significant production |
| Indiana | 10.5 | Defending playoff finalist; over/under essentially a coin flip |
| Oregon | 10.5 | Over priced even or slightly plus at most books |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | Shortest over price (-165) of the 9.5 tier |
| Georgia | 9.5 | Heavy over lean (-190 at BetMGM/SBR) |
| Texas | 9.5 | Rare plus-money underdog to clear its own number |
| Penn State | 9.5 | Over juiced to -135 despite a rockier 2025 |
The Case for Texas Tech Clearing Double Digits
No team in this top tier has a more favorable gap between its win total and the market’s confidence level than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a 12-2 season, and books have them at -220 to clear 10.5 — noticeably shorter than what Notre Dame, Miami or even Ohio State are getting at their respective numbers. That’s the market openly saying it expects Texas Tech’s floor to be higher than its ceiling is uncertain, which is exactly the kind of number bettors look for in a futures market.
Texas Tech’s -220 over price is the shortest number attached to any team in the double-digit win-total tier.
Notre Dame is the trickier bet of the group. An 11.5 total is aggressive by nature — it requires a team to win essentially every game on its schedule to clear it, and the plus-money price on the over reflects that the Irish would need a genuinely special season, not just a good one, to get there. That doesn’t mean fading Notre Dame outright is smart; it means the number itself, not necessarily the team’s quality, is what’s driving the risk.
Georgia’s -190 over lean at 9.5 stands out too. A team with that number and that price is being told by the market it should be treated more like an 10-plus win team that got a discount than a true toss-up at 9.5 — that’s where value hunters should be looking first when deciding whether to lean toward the over or find a live number elsewhere. Bettors comparing win totals against a prediction market approach may also want to check how the win-probability pricing differs from the standard vig-based sportsbook number, since the framing of “yes/no” versus “over/under” can occasionally expose gaps in perceived value.
The Best Bet
Texas Tech’s over 10.5 is the strongest play in this top tier — the price already reflects how the market feels, and there’s still room for the Red Raiders to outperform even that. Ohio State’s over 9.5 at -165 is the next best value, given the Buckeyes’ returning talent and a number that hasn’t fully caught up to how the roster projects.
- Pick: Texas Tech Over 10.5 (-220)
- Value alternative: Ohio State Over 9.5 (-165)
Part 2 of this series will dig into the next tier of the board — teams sitting between 8.5 and 9.5 wins where the market is far less settled and the value is easier to find.