Bally’s Price Target Slashed a Third as Analyst Says New York Casino Holds the Key

Bally’s Corp. stock took a hit this week after Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas slashed his price target on the company by a full third, cutting it from $15 per share down to $10. The move came in an August 18 investor note, with Bally’s shares trading around $10.31 at the time. Jonas kept his rating at Hold, pointing to “mixed results” in the company’s second-quarter earnings and, more alarmingly, Bally’s own warning that it might not be able to continue as a going concern.

That going-concern language is the kind of disclosure that tends to rattle Wall Street, and Jonas made clear in his note that the company’s path out of it runs largely through New York City.

Why the Bronx Casino Is the Linchpin

Bally’s is sitting on a $4 billion casino project at Ferry Point in the Bronx, one of three commercial casino licenses New York’s Gaming Commission approved back on December 15, 2025, alongside Hard Rock’s Metropolitan Park and Resorts World’s Aqueduct expansion. The company has already sunk real money into the project, including a $500 million license fee and a $115 million golf course concession payment, both made in the first quarter of 2026.

Jonas argued that landing full financing for the Bronx development could be the move that finally erases the going-concern flag from Bally’s books. “We have in the past noted sizable investor interest in the Bronx project and think once completed, financing for New York could help remove the ‘going-concern’ language in the financials,” he wrote. Bally’s has already lined up a non-binding term sheet for a pre-construction loan and a letter of intent from a potential equity investor, both struck over the summer. Construction applications were reportedly filed in mid-July, though the project’s public opening target has already slipped from an original September 2026 window.

Chicago and Las Vegas Add to the Uncertainty

New York isn’t the only market weighing on the stock. Jonas flagged that Bally’s has been trimming amenities at its Chicago development “beyond the minimums it agreed to,” which he tied to the company’s frustration over incoming slot routes in the city. Still, he wasn’t panicked about a worst-case scenario there, writing that if the Chicago project “ultimately fails, we continue to believe there are other reputable operators willing to step in to manage the property.”

In Las Vegas, Bally’s continues developing non-gaming amenities for its planned Tropicana replacement, with some offerings targeted for the 2028 opening of the Athletics’ new stadium next door. Jonas noted it was telling that management didn’t mention the casino component of that project in recent updates.

To shore up its balance sheet, Bally’s is reportedly weighing several levers: selling additional equity, taking on more debt, or offloading some of its remaining assets. The company ended the second quarter with $4.5 billion in debt against just $488 million in cash on hand.

Bright Spots Beneath the Surface

It wasn’t all bad news in the note. Bally’s land-based casinos posted 4.3% visitation growth in the second quarter, with revenue up 2% to $401 million and cash flow up 3% to $110 million, aided by newer properties in Baton Rouge and Marquette, Iowa. Overseas, the company saw a 15% revenue jump in Spain from new player acquisition, and in the United Kingdom, management said cost controls helped offset the impact of a near-doubling of the gambling tax rate, with more relief expected in the back half of 2026. Bally’s also picked up new lottery contracts through its Intralot business in Australia, Greece, and Chile, and was selected as a technology provider for the Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corporation.

Jonas’ note also touched on Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc., the REIT that owns many Bally’s-branded properties and holds a Buy rating from Truist. Even though Bally’s accounts for 19% of GLPI’s rent collections, Jonas said GLPI remains only minimally exposed given rent-coverage protections built into the master leases — protections that he said would hold up even in a Bally’s bankruptcy scenario. He added that GLPI would have other options for managing the Chicago property if Bally’s couldn’t deliver there.

What It Means Going Forward

The price-target cut underscores just how much hinges on Bally’s ability to nail down financing for its New York project in the coming months. A completed capital raise for the Bronx casino could go a long way toward calming investor nerves about the company’s liquidity position, while continued delays would keep the going-concern cloud hanging over the stock. For now, Jonas’ Hold rating reflects a wait-and-see approach — one where New York, more than Chicago or Las Vegas, looks like the market that will decide which direction Bally’s heads next.