So, my editor responded to my submission yesterday by, in essence, calling me a coward. And yes, I did take the Connecticut Sun moneyline at -1600 as my only selection yesterday. But in my defense:
As I detailed in the pick, I needed to “get well” after an 0-3 Wednesday. I’d call that “prudence” and “wisdom” rather than “cowardice*,” but that’s just me.
A win’s a win. If you were to guarantee me a win at -1600 every day, I’d take it in a heartbeat. The money you earn off a -1600 moneyline favorite spends just as nice as the money you earn off a -110 spread. It just might not be as much...
Call me a pessimist, but taking a favorite at -1600 pretty much puts the fear in you the moment you place the bet.
The Fever outscored the Sun by 10 in the third quarter and had cut Connecticut’s lead to 8 heading into the fourth. If you don’t think it took courage to watch those final ten minutes…
My charge with this column is to make you, my loyal readers, money. If you followed my advice yesterday, guess what? You made money. So I’m doing my job. “I would rather you just say ‘Thank you,’ and be on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you buy WNBA League Pass and stand a post. Either way, I don’t give a damn, what you-!“ Wait. (shakes out cobwebs) That’s Colonel Jessep** (Jack Nicholson) from A FEW GOOD MEN (screenplay by Aaron Sorkin, based on his play). My apologies.
But all right, all right. Point taken. Perhaps an editor’s job includes questioning his writers’ courage.*** I’ve had my “day of rest” and am ready today to dive back into more lucrative plays. You know what that means, right?
Parlays, baby! Parlays!
*My editor didn’t actually use the word “coward.” But I’m incredibly perceptive (well, perhaps I wasn’t going 0-3 on Wednesday), and I knew what he was implying.
**Col. Jessep was notorious for banking moneyline wins on heavy favorites. He would’ve taken the Sun last night and then doctored the box score. Villainous? Debatable.
***Again, technically not what happened…
Seattle O’Sullivan so far: 47-40-1
The Picks:
Parlay - Dallas +3.5/Seattle -2000/Las Vegas -1600: True Price +109
Parlay - Seattle -2000/Las Vegas -1600: True Price -865
Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8 pm EDT
The Pick: Dallas +3.5 (-115)
I’m not quitting on Dallas just yet. They haven’t lost two in a row at home since the end of May. Normally they shoot 35.5% from three; in their loss to Chicago on Wednesday they shot just 24.0%. Incidentally, Chicago shot 43.5% from the arc, when normally they shoot just 34.2%. Dallas also turned the ball over four more times than they usually do. I’ll take a little regression to the mean tonight with my points.
Las Vegas Aces at Los Angeles Sparks, 10 pm EDT
The Pick: Los Angeles +14.5 (-110)
Eight minutes into the game on Wednesday, it was looking good for the Sparks. They were only down by one. Then the roof caved in; by the quarter’s end, they were down nine and Las Vegas was already toying with them. The spread Wednesday was 15.5, it’s even fewer points tonight, 14.5. So why am I going with Los Angeles again? No, not stupidity, though thanks for weighing in. Despite their flaws, I do think the Sparks have pride. I still think they work hard on defense. Finally, I imagine the Aces won’t be able to help but take their foot off the gas a bit tonight.
Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm, 10 pm EDT
The Pick: Atlanta +15.5 (-110)
Seattle is 2-6 against the spread at home this season. That can’t be ignored. As scattered and disjointed as Atlanta can be sometimes (and trust me, I’ve watched it enough), they do score the rock: 83.2 points per game. Seattle’s starting five might be the best in the WNBA, but their bench has a tendency to let teams back into games. You can see from my parlay picks (“stupidity,” yes, again, thanks for weighing in) that I think the Storm cruise. But the Dream’s Courtney Williams never gives up, and should be able to do some damage.