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Away wins selections variations from four contests across Europe comprise our Saturday slate including ample late expected value take occasions.
Eibar v. Deportivo Alaves | La Liga | 8:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Deportivo Alaves PK @ +155 | .5u
THE PLAY: Deportivo Alaves -1 @ +600 | .125u
THE PLAY: Deportivo Alaves win to nil @ +450 | .125u
Alaves travels to the heavy odds-on favorite (-5000 at Bovada) for relegation, Eibar, with motivations of avoiding the same fate. The draw no bet at well above plus money appeals because Eibar has failed to win in eighteen consecutive attempts in all competitions.
The draw no bet price has shortened considerably to +116 at Pinnacle. The alternate line price has shortened to +578 at Pinnacle and the shutout win prop has shortened to +395 on Bovada. Consequently, we claim $.39 (or.39u), $.13 (or .13u), and $.55 (or .55u) of closing line value on each selection, respectively. Significant price variation exists in the win to nil market.
At the time we posted the plays, a ML price of +270 implied a probability of 27% for an Alaves victory. Our projections, however, indicate that Alaves wins 31.5% - 32.95% of similarly situated contests. Accordingly, we estimate a value edge of 4.5% - 5.95% for the selections.
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Leeds United | Premier League | 10:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Leeds United ML @ +268 | .5u
THE PLAY: Leeds United -1 @ +610 | .25u
Marcelo Bielsa’s murder-balling Leeds United visits The American Express Stadium on Saturday morning. We perceive substantial value on the away side against Graham Potter’s expected goal accumulators. No opportunity, yet, for closing line value with this late expected value take considering we released the play earlier today.
Brighton has scored one goal in its previous five league matches. Although a ML price of +268 suggests a probability of 27.2% for our desired outcome, we estimate Leeds collects three points in ilk natured matches 31.35% - 33% of the time. Therefore, we approximate a value edge of 4.15% - 5.8% for the bets.
Paris Saint-Germain v. Lens | Ligue One | 11:00 am ET
THE PLAY: Lens PK @ +600 | .125u
THE PLAY: Lens ML @ +840 | .125u
As the Leeds United spot supplies a golden late take opportunity, so does this plus expected value long punt. We perceive Lens to be priced too lengthy. PSG has seen nine matches in April while the hosts will play its fifth competition in two weeks on Saturday morning.
While PSG looks to climb to the peak of Ligue One in its race to a fourth consecutive domestic title, tired legs and wondering minds may benefit the visitors as an all-important Champions League Semi-final with Manchester City awaits midweek (Manchester City 2 – PSG 1 Aggregate). Additionally, Franck Haise’s men aims to fend off Marseille’s late push for the fifth spot in the league which bears Europa Conference League qualification fruit.
Contemplating a 10.6% implied probability based on a ML price of +840, we estimate a value edge of 4.95% - 7.55% on the selections because we approximate Lens wins at a rate of 15.55% - 18.15% in like mannered contests.
Despite recent posting, we have already accumulated some closing line value on these selections. The best available draw no bet price now exists at HeritageSports at +563 while the best available ML price has shortened to +810 at MarathonBet. Hence, we garner $.37 (or .37u) and $.30 (or .3u) of closing line value on the selections, respectively.
Huesca v. Real Sociedad | La Liga | 12:30 pm ET
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad ML @ +110 | .25u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad -1 @ +210 | .425u
THE PLAY: Real Sociedad win to nil @ +250 | .325u
The closing line value essentially washes here. Although we gain $.15 (or .15u) of closing line value on the shutout win proposition as the best available price falls to +235 at Bovada, the alternate line is available for $.10 cheaper than we took at 888sport.
Huesca has no goal output in its previous three league matches having only netted once in its past six. Motivations play a significant factor here as well. While Huesca is odds-on for relegation (-300 at Bovada), Sociedad strives to secure Europa League qualification by remaining fifth position. Sociedad currently rests three points above challengers Real Betis in the Spanish top-flight table.
An away ML price of +110 implies a probability of 47.6%, but we estimate Sociedad wins similarly situated matches at a clip above a coin flip rate. Therefore, the play provides value, and we will tack on a quarter unit stake on the ML to endorse that take for late players.
THE PLAYS
Deportivo Alaves PK @ +155 | .5u
Deportivo Alaves -1 @ +600 | .125u
Deportivo Alaves win to nil @ +450 | .125u
Leeds United ML @ +268 | .5u
Leeds United -1 @ +610 | .25u
Lens PK @ +600 | .125u
Lens ML @ +840 | .125u
Real Sociedad ML @ +110 | .25u
Real Sociedad -1 @ +210 | .425u
Real Sociedad win to nil @ +250 | .325u
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