Feinting the Line International Picks for Gameday 3.25.21
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England v. Switzerland | U21 European Championship Qualifier| 10:00 am ET
THE PLAY: England -1 @ +110 | .3u
This play is still available at a price of +104 at 888sport and bet365, offering solid value opportunity for late players. We back Callum Hudson-Odoi and the talented baby Three Lions. We consider the spot valuable at any plus money opportunities.
Israel v. Denmark | UEFA World Cup Qualifier | 1:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Denmark ML @ -110 | .5u
THE PLAY: Denmark -1 @ +190 | .5u
Munas Dabbur and Eran Zahavi provide a formidable attacking threat for the Israelis while Martin Braithwaite, Yussuf Poulsen, and Christian Eriksen will lead Denmark’s search for the back of the net. Denmark should prove a tough nut to crack, however, with a double pivot security blanket of Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg sweeping up in front of Captain Simon Kjaer.
We estimate Denmark wins similarly situated matches at a 57.7% - 59.25% clip. Accordingly, we estimate a value edge of 5.3% - 6.85% on the ML price of -110 based on an implied probability of 52.4%.
Our value claims are substantiated by significant closing line value accrued. We have garnered $.23 or (.23u) of closing line value on the ML play and $.46 (or .46u) of closing line value on the alternate line bet. Best prices now reside at Pinnacle at -133 and +144, respectively, with value having evaporated.
France v. Denmark | U21 European Championship Qualifier| 4:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: France -1 @ +110 | .3u
Our early trust in the ridiculously-armed French kiddos has been rewarded with marginal closing line value as the best price available has slipped to -102 on Pinnacle. Consequently, we claim $.12 or (.12u) of closing line value.
Portugal v. Croatia | U21 European Championship Qualifier| 4:00 pm ET
THE PLAY: Portugal -1 @ +168 | .3u
Best price available for the play now resides at Pinnacle at +152. Another marginal value snag here as we accumulate $.16 (or .16u) of closing line value.
THE PLAYS
England -1 @ +110 | .3u
Denmark ML @ -110 | .5u
Denmark -1 @ +190 | .5u
France -1 @ +110 | .3u
Portugal -1 @ +168 | .3u
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