Introduction
Good morning everyone! We, at Feinting the Line, are thrilled to introduce our footy content to the readers of Bettors Insider.
Who We Are: Feinting the Line’s History
Feinting the Line is a value pick soccer account that originated on Twitter (Account Handle: @FeintingtheLine). Our account plays began on September 26, 2020. Since that date, Feinting the Line has accumulated +38.537 units on value soccer plays. Feinting the Line historical records:
Lifetime: +38.537u | (221-250);
November: +27.7345u; and
December: -2.635u.
An observer might notice that our play record is negative at 221 wins and 250 losses while our units profited are positive. This is a direct function of the value play procedure that Feinting the Line undertakes to assess valuable plays as well as the manner which Feinting the Line bets and grades plays. Feinting the Line selects plays via a distinct value play/varied-unit procedure. Our procedure and plays sharply differ to those of many gamblers.
Our Gambling Style
Feinting the Line employs a gambling style, which at its core, involves the pursuit of value. Value: the actual probability of a desired betting outcome exceeds the implied probability of the bet. One way to measure value is by gaining (and measuring) closing line value in your bets. The closing line value of a bet is a function of the price of a bet at the time the bettor bet compared to the price of the bet at the time the markets closed the game line. Feinting the Line selects plays based on research involving advanced statistics or analytics, historical data, tactical anticipation, lineup anticipation, injury news, weather news, as well as many other variables. The research variables inform our analysis of whether a line is a “value” play.
Feinting the Line’s betting unit system involves plays ranging from .05 units and up. The number of units bet correlates to confidence in the percentage chance outcome of the play, confidence in the value realized by the bet, and many other factors. When we post a bet of a favorite as 1 unit, that means the bet is to win 1 unit. When we post a play of an underdog as 1 unit, that means the play is to risk 1 unit.
Footy game markets are notoriously volatile in terms of high amounts of line movement between time of game market opening and time of market closing. In pursuit to realize the value opportunities created by the volatile footy market, Feinting the Line monitors game markets often and selects plays earlier than many bettors. Feinting the Line will commonly select plays a week in advance of a game date. A risk of this strategy, exacerbated by the uncertain COVID-19 times, is injuries or late news leading to a tank in the value of an early bet. For this reason, Feinting the Line highly encourages anyone who plans to tail our plays to follow our Twitter account: @FeintingtheLine. The benefit of following Feinting the Line’s Twitter account during these circumstances is that we will post hedges (or cash outs for those who gamble at a book offering that option) of certain bets where we believe the prior value has diminished. We will try to post hedge bets – which are more crucial to Feinting the Line’s strategy of betting than may gamblers – in time for write-ups on Bettors Insider, but this will not be possible in all circumstances.
Content
Our Twitter account’s content:
Recording/tracking of all plays (including preliminary picks, hedges, and daily additions) through results spreadsheets;
Bi-weekly postings of all results spreadsheets;
Occasional closing line value tracking; and
Full transparency.
In our Bettors Insider posts, we hope everyone will enjoy a glance at the reasoning behind the plays that Feinting the Line selects. Feinting the Line plans to post preliminary picks, results spreadsheets, and other content at bettorsinsider.com. A majority of plays will be posted at Bettors Insider for the foreseeable future; however, we cannot guarantee all hedges and daily additions will be in time for write-ups.
Welcome
We hope everyone enjoys getting to know Feinting the Line. We are always open to interaction on Twitter publicly or in our private messages, so if you plan on tailing, please get to following @FeintingtheLine on Twitter. Happy betting!