Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers (2-4-1) will host the Pittsburgh Penguins (3-4-1) at Rogers Place. The bookmakers are favoring the Oilers with odds of -210, while the Penguins sit at +175. Given that both teams are coming off some pretty tough losses, we expect a solid effort on the ice to walk away with a couple of points.
The Penguins enter this game after a disappointing 4-3 shootout loss to Calgary.
Although Pittsburgh held the lead twice in the third period, their inability to finish games has been a theme so far this season.
They have now dropped 3 games in a row, allowing 14 goals across those losses. This trend is, for the most part, attributed to a defense that has let in an average of 4.25 goals per game. That ranks the Penguins among the worst in the league so far.
Pittsburgh’s offensive output, however, has been somewhat respectable, with the team averaging 3.38 goals per game. Sure, that’s not great, but at least it’s in the upper half of the NHL.
Evgeni Malkin is off to a strong start, leading with 11 points through 2 goals and 9 assists, but Pittsburgh’s defensive problems have greatly overshadowed these individual numbers.
Goaltending has been a problematic issue as well, as Alex Nedeljkovic holds a 3.86 goals-against average and a .869 save percentage. Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal which brings a career 2.72 GAA and a .911 save percentage — solid numbers, of course — but he’ll need to bring his best to contain an Oilers team hungry for a win.
The Penguins are faring better in power-play and penalty-kill situations than Edmonton. They’ve converted on 24% of power plays and maintained an 82.6% penalty kill success rate. Not bad special teams. They’ll look to capitalize on the Oilers’ penalty kill struggles, which could keep them competitive in this road matchup.
The Oilers sit at 2-4-1 and are coming off a heartbreaking 3-2 overtime loss to Carolina.
Despite controlling the game early with a 2-0 lead, they couldn’t hang on for the rest of the game and notch the win.
Much like Pittsburgh, the Oilers’ defensive performance has been shaky, to say the least. They’ve allowed 3.86 goals per game while struggling to keep opponents from taking advantage of their penalty kill, which ranks as one of the NHL’s worst at just 54.5%.
Edmonton’s offense hasn’t fully clicked, either. They’re managing only 2 goals per game so far. Connor McDavid leads the offense with eight points, and Zach Hyman has a history of big performances against Pittsburgh, scoring in each of his last 5 home games against them.
Edmonton’s power play, surprisingly ineffective as well, has only capitalized on 10.5% of opportunities — a statistic that we think needs to improve for them to find consistent success.
Goalie Stuart Skinner is expected to be in the net when the game kicks off, but he’s had a rough start with a 3.74 GAA and a .866 save percentage. That’s just not his normal self. Skinner will have to elevate his game to keep the Penguins’ high-scoring top line in check.
The Oilers have a strong home record against Metropolitan Division teams. They’ve won 8 of their last 9 matchups at Rogers Place.
On top of that, they’ve been reliable on the puck line when facing Pittsburgh, covering in 7 of their last 8 meetings. Edmonton’s edge in home performance, combined with Pittsburgh’s shaky goaltending, gives them the upper hand in this Friday night matchup.
With both teams having major defensive issues, we expect a high-scoring game.
The Over 6.5 goals look great here, as these two offenses have the potential to take advantage of each other’s weaknesses.
However, Edmonton has shown a history of bouncing back on home ice, and they should capitalize on Pittsburgh’s poor recent performances, particularly on Friday games, where the Penguins have lost 6 straight.
Best Bet: Take Edmonton Oilers -1.5 on the puck line.
The Oilers’ solid historical trends at home, especially against Metropolitan teams, make them a confident pick to win by at least 2 goals here.