Week 10 of the NFL season brings us two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Falcons will visit the Saints in an NFC South showdown. Check out the live odds and our predictions and best bet!
This line has been all over the place! The lookahead line before last Sunday's results was a Pick'Em. However, most online sports betting apps reopened the line at Atlanta -3.5 after they dominated Dallas in Week 9. The Saints losing to the lowly Panthers also affected that line move and understandably so.
As for the total, things have been much quieter on that front. The line opened at 47 and a little bit of Over money has pushed it to 47.5 at most shops as of Monday afternoon. The move kind of makes sense when you consider how familiar the Falcons are with playing in a dome.
After starting the season off at just 1-2, Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They've won 5 of 6 and currently have a hefty lead in the NFC South division standings. Atlanta did lose Drake London to a hip injury against Dallas and he's questionable to play against New Orleans.
Kirk Cousins looked kind of rusty to start the season, but he's been playing lights out ever since he torched the Bucs during Thursday Night Football a few weeks back. The former Vikings star has thrown for 2,328 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024. Even if London can't go, Cousins still has Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts at his disposal in the passing game.
The Falcons defense has been below average for most of the year. This unit ranks dead last in rushing the passer and just 21st in yards per rush allowed. Jessie Bates and AJ Terrell have been two of the few bright spots, as both of them have hauled in two interceptions.
They say that the NFL should stand for "Not For Long". That saying definitely rings true for Dennis Allen, who was fired by the Saints after losing to the lowly Panthers last Sunday. He was just 18-25 during his head coaching tenure in the Big Easy.
How will the Saints respond after the dismissal of Allen? No one can say for sure, but NFL teams typically play more inspired after a coach is fired. Some bettors lovingly refer to this as the "Dead Cat Bounce Theory".
With Chris Olave suffering another concussion, the Saints offense will rely even more heavily on Alvin Kamara. The veteran running back leads the team in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Journeyman Derek Carr will also be throwing to his tight ends (Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau) more frequently.
This may be my ugliest bet of the NFL season so far, but I have to do it! I'm still not sold on this Falcons defense, and I expect a solid effort from the Saints after Allen's firing. This is a great opportunity to buy New Orleans at a low after their awful loss to Carolina.
It's tough to back a 2-7 team, but there's no way that this line should have moved 3.5 points off the look-ahead number of Pick'em. Look for a big game from Kamara and for Carr to have a decent day as well since he should have all day to throw. Give me Who Dat at the plus price!
Prediction: Falcons 24 - Saints 23