This MNF matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has tons of exciting storylines, and player props are a great way to get into the action for yourself.
Here are 5 of the best prop picks for the MNF showdown. We might not have included any plus-money props in this, but it’s because these 5 are too good to pass up.
Player Prop Odds: -115
Patrick Mahomes has been extremely steady this season. Even if he’s not quite reaching his usual electrifying heights, he’s still getting the job done and racking up the yards.
Currently ranked 13th among QBs in EPA per dropback, Mahomes is averaging fewer deep-ball attempts than in previous years, but he's still finding ways to move the chains with short, extremely efficient throws. Sure, we like the deep ball, but we’ll take yards however we can get them.
Tampa Bay’s defense has been fairly vulnerable to the passing game, particularly in allowing explosive plays, as they rank in the bottom 5 in passes of 10+ and 20+ yards allowed.
This game reeks of opportunity for Mahomes to take advantage of Tampa’s weaker secondary.
Despite Tampa's solid pressure rate, Mahomes' experience and the Chiefs' quick passing game should help him stay composed and consistently pick up big yardage. We expect him to blow through 249.5 yards in this one, especially if he connects on a couple of big plays with his receivers racking up yards after the catch.
Player Prop Odds: -110
Baker Mayfield’s passing game has been, for the most part, inconsistent. On top of that, he’s entering a tough matchup against the Chiefs' unpredictable defense that has absolutely dominated the passing game.
Kansas City has done phenomenally in limiting opposing QBs, ranking 6th in defensive EPA, with a scheme designed to confuse passers by shifting coverages. They generate pressure on 23% of dropbacks, and Mayfield will undoubtedly feel the heat, particularly given Tampa’s injury-riddled receiving corps and the absence of quick options for him to rely on.
The Chiefs' defense is notably hard to predict. This makes it difficult for less experienced QBs like Mayfield to find a rhythm.
It’s unlikely that Mayfield will surpass 236.5 passing yards in this environment so we’re taking the under on his total yards.
Player Prop Odds: -110
Kareem Hunt has found himself as a reliable option in the ground game and could see a hefty share of touches this Monday.
The Buccaneers defense, which has been more susceptible to the run compared to its once-dominant brick wall reputation, has struggled against the power runners.
Hunt, with his physical style and knack for breaking tackles, fits the bill as the type of RB who can wear down a defense over the course of a game as he punches through and finds holes.
Given his expected workload and the Buccaneers' recent issues stopping the run, Hunt has a solid chance of going well over the 63.5 rushing yards. Look for Hunt to grind out yardage and have some big plays in this MNF matchup.
Player Prop Odds: -135
Kelce has been Mahomes' go-to weapon for a while, especially in clutch situations. He’s also coming off a series of games where he’s consistently racked up targets. He might not get the most yards (as we mentioned, Mahomes isn’t going for explosive plays as much anymore), but he’s still a favorite for the targets.
In a game where the Chiefs may lean on the passing game to take advantage of a few of Tampa’s vulnerabilities, Kelce is set to be heavily involved.
Despite Tampa Bay’s ability to blitz, they often leave the middle of the field open, where Kelce thrives as a big-bodied target who can find soft spots in the coverage.
With his reliable hands and experience, Kelce should see plenty of looks on Monday for targets. Hitting the over on 5.5 receptions feels very likely to us. He’s been targeted an average of 8 times per game, and Mahomes will surely rely on him in some crucial situations.
Player Prop Odds: -115
Rachaad White is coming off a few underwhelming performances. The matchup against Kansas City's dominant front 7 doesn’t bode well for him, either.
The Chiefs rank 4th in the NFL in pressure rate and have been effective at shutting down rushing attacks. With Tampa’s offensive line also dealing with some big injury concerns, White could find it difficult to find space and make impactful runs.
White has struggled to maintain efficiency throughout the season, and Kansas City’s defense has allowed few productive outings for RBs this season. With the Chiefs likely to put pressure on Mayfield and stack the box, we are feeling like White could struggle to even approach 27.5 rushing yards in this game.
These prop picks are based on player trends, defensive matchups, and team tendencies heading into this MNF showdown.
With Mahomes eyeing a big passing day, Kelce ready for a high-volume game, and a Chiefs defense set to challenge Mayfield and White, these picks are easily the most probable outcomes for an intense Monday Night Football matchup.