The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) will be taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) in what we think will be a monstrous Monday Night Football matchup.
Both teams come in with identical records, but the Ravens are arguably playing at a higher level right now.
With a potent rushing attack and a much-improved passing game, Baltimore has been on fire lately. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has shown quite a few inconsistencies, especially on defense, which could make it tough to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company.
Baltimore enters this game as a 3.5-point favorite. That’s no surprise to us. With the over/under set at 50 points, it seems the bookmakers are thinking Jackson is going to light up the field.
The Ravens' recent dominance on the ground has made them an easy pick against the spread, while Tampa Bay’s defensive blunders could make for a high-scoring game.
The Buccaneers are home underdogs at +3.5, but they’ll need a complete performance to cover that spread. Even at 3.5, that seems a bit generous for this team.
Baltimore has been covering well recently, going 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, while the Bucs are 4-2 ATS. When it comes to scoring, the Ravens have consistently gone over, posting a 5-1 record against the over/under, while Tampa is sitting at 4-2 for the over.
The Ravens have been red-hot. They’ve won four straight after starting the season 0-2.
Lamar Jackson has been incredible, and the addition of Derrick Henry has taken the run game to another level. Henry has rushed for over 130 yards in three of his last four games, and Baltimore’s 5.9 yards per carry average is by far the best in the league.
We’re thinking this will spell disaster for a Buccaneers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed.
In addition to their dominance on the ground, Jackson has thrown for over 320 yards in each of his last two games, making the Ravens one of the most balanced offenses in the league right now.
On paper it seems that the Ravens are going to tear up the Bucs, but how do the Bucs respond?
On the other side of the field, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield has played well, throwing for 15 touchdowns already this season which has him tied with Jordan Love for the top spot.
His connection with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is one of the best in the NFL. They’ll need to use this to take advantage of a Ravens defense that has struggled against the pass, allowing the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL.
The Buccaneers could turn this into a shootout, but their recent defensive woes — giving up 26 points in three of their last four games — are a red flag for us.
They allowed Kirk Cousins to torch them for 509 passing yards in their last primetime appearance, so containing Jackson’s dual-threat ability might be more of a challenge than Cousins.
Ultimately, we see this game as having the potential to be high-scoring, but someone needs to win this shootout and we think Baltimore looks like the more complete team right now.
With Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson running wild, and the Bucs showing weaknesses defensively, it's hard to see Tampa Bay slowing them down on MNF.
The Ravens’ ground game will undoubtedly wear down the Buccaneer's defense, and Jackson’s recent passing surge gives Baltimore the edge in what should be a competitive game.
BettorInsiders Best Bet: Ravens -3.5
Baltimore should cover this spread with their balanced offense and relentless run game. The Buccaneers may hang around for a quarter or two, but the Ravens’ ability to control the tempo and break big plays will help them pull away in the second half.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Buccaneers 24