For the second-straight week, we ended 4-6 with our 10 best anytime TD picks last week. We did get an average of +180 odds (+250 with Chris Godwin) on the bets we cashed, so we ended up taking a small profit on the week.
Let's take a look at our 10 best anytime touchdown bets for week 3. If we're able to cash 6 this week we should see a nice return on investment of 50% or more. If we hit all 10 with a $10 wager on each, were looking at a $2,480 win. Act accordingly, but bet responsibly.
As always, we'll hit every primetime game, which includes a Monday Night doubleheader this week.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Stevenson has scored in each of the Patriots' first two games, racking up 216 total yards over those two contests. If we look at New England's red zone usage this season, Rhamondre has accounted for 11 of the 17 total touches. It's a tough matchup, in what should be a low-scoring game, but we like getting plus-money with a high-volume RB on Thursday night.
Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings
We were originally planning on giving out a Joe Mixon replacement here, but with Dameon Pierce also out, the Texans backfield is extremely thin this week. We'll instead pivot to Jones, who has enjoyed a heavy workload as a runner and receiver in the red zone. DeMeco Ryans' defense has looked suspect early this season and we think Jones finds a way into the end zone here.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Hurts has 38 rushing touchdowns in the last 3 season, but Barkely's success in the red zone has cut into that number through 2 games this season. Facing the #2 run defense in the league through 2 weeks, the Eagles will need to utilize Hurts' legs in the red zone to score against the Saints. We're passing on the -200 odds for Kamara and -155 odds for Barkley and taking the +120 with Hurts this week.
Carolina Panthers vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Carolina Panthers are allowing 1.49 yards before contact this season, 6th worst in the NFL. They're also allowing 4.9 YPC and have given up 3 rushing touchdowns in 2 weeks. Let's take advantage of this run defense and the nice +210 odds with Mattison, who has scored in each of the Raiders first two games.
San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams
We absolutely hate giving out anytime TD picks with these odds, but Mason looks like a lock to score every week until McCaffrey is back. Through two weeks, he is second in the NFL in red zone rushing attempts, first in red zone yards, and has scored in each of the 49ers first 2 games.
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
The Detroit Lions are taking 2-3 deep shots with Jamo every week, but are also utilizing his ability to get open in the red zone. Williams leads the Lions with 5 red zone targets in the first 2 weeks. We can cash this ticket with a deep shot, in the red zone, or one of those famous end-arounds... as long it cashes we're happy.
Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
This is a spot where we originally targeted Luke Schoonmaker as a nice longshot bet, assuming Jake Ferguson was out again. Ferguson is back in the lineup for the Cowboys, and we're going to take the sure bet with Derrick Henry. Harbaugh has preached all week that the Ravens are going to commit to the run and stick with it this week. We'll take the bait and roll with Henry, despite his less than ideal odds here.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons
With Pacheco out, and a group of receivers that don't appear to be part of the red zone game plan for Kansas City, Kelce is the obvious answer here. The Chiefs wide receivers have a combined 3 targets in the red zone, Kelce has 2 targets and a carry. He's yet to score this season, but that changes in this SNF matchup with the Falcons.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
It seems like good things happen every time the Jags target BT. His lone red zone target this season resulted in a touchdown. On the season, he has only 8 targets, but has caught 6 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. There is a good chance Jacksonville is playing from behind on Monday, hopefully the find a way to get Thomas more involved and he finds his way into the end zone again.
Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Commanders can't cover anyone right now. Opposing wide receivers are up to 30 catches for 373 and 6 touchdowns through 2 weeks. Don't overthink it here. Chase has caught 10 of 11 targets this season, and it's only a matter of time until he finds the end zone. This is the week, take the plus-money odds on Monday night.