The first week of the 2024 NFL season is finally here, which means we have hundreds of player prop bets to analyze. Our team has combed through the week 1 props at each of the top sports betting apps to identify our absolute best bets.
Longest completion over 37.5 YDS
Tua and the Dolphins take on a Jaguars team with one of the worst secondaries in Week 1 of play. With Mike McDaniel opening up his playbook for the new season, expect some trickery to get Waddle and Hill in space and let them work. Tua has completed a pass over 38 yards in each of his last two Week 1 appearances for Miami, with him throwing for 38 yards or more nine times during 2023’s regular season.
With not only Waddle and Hill going deep but Achane, Mostert, and rookie Jaylen Wright getting active in the HB screen game this season, there’s a very good chance Miami’s speed after the catch wins this bet for both yourself and Tua.
Over 272.5 Passing Yards
Kyler Murray is finally healthy and he finally has a few viable options on the offense side of the ball. Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Trey Benson, and Greg Dortch line up against a Buffalo defense that looks more beatable than ever, and with Arizona milking the clock with their 3 running options, this is the upset of Week 1 that you should pick.
Outside of 2022’s season opener against Kansas City, Murray has surpassed this yard mark in each of his four other season openers including his mid-season return in 2023 where he wasn’t playing at 100%. With added options on the offense and a downward-trending Bills defense, look for Murray to rise up and have a great Week 1 performance.
Over 0.5 TDs (2.5x)
AD Mitchell should slide into the Colts starting lineup with Josh Downs coming off an off-season injury. Mitchell is a red zone assassin, scoring 11 TDs in 14 games with the Longhorns last season while beating defenders over the top with ease. The Richardson to Mitchell connection is more of a long-term investment, but AD Mitchell against a smaller Texans secondary is a solid week 1 bet with boosted odds.
Over 3.5 Receptions
With Douglas potentially sliding into the slot role for New England, look for him to lead this team in catches early on this season in his 2nd year. Douglas ended his rookie season on a high note, commanding 5 or more targets in each of his final 9 games of the year.
With Brisset grabbing the starting role for the new-look Pats, expect Demario to be a focal point of the offense against Cincinnati this week and with a positive game script, I’d even go for over 5.5 receptions for Douglas.
RB Jaylen Wright (MIA) - Over 0.5 TDs
You can find extremely favorable odds (+700 anytime TD at DraftKings) for the Dolphins rookie running back to find the end zone in his first career game.
WR Darnell Mooney (ATL) - Over 29.5 REC YDS
Mooney is one of our favorite sleeper fantasy picks this season, and we think he has a big debut for Atlanta. With an improved offensive scheme, Kirk Cousins at QB, and playmakers surrounding him, Mooney should have nothing but favorable matchups this season.
QB Bryce Young (CAR) - Over 0.5 Passing TDs
We do expect Bryce Young to take a step forward this season and would be surprised if he doesn't throw a touchdown in this opener against the Saints.