The NFL season kicks off this week and the Thursday Night Football matchup between Kansas City and Baltimore looks to be a great one. The Ravens lost a few key defensive weapons including Patrick Queen, but turned to the 2024 campaign with a juggernaut of an offense on paper. Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Zay Flowers will be joined by Derrick Henry to create a unit that is the favorite to win the AFC North.
Kansas City is coming off their 3rd super bowl in the Reid-Mahomes era and are looking to further etch their names in the history books with another successful season. Mahomes gets an extra weapon in the draft with Xavier Worthy and with the Chiefs returning most of their defense and offensive weapons, points will get put up on the board quickly and often in this game.
The Chiefs are currently a 3-point favorite over the Ravens, with the total sitting at 46.5 points. With Baltimore adjusting to a number of offseason losses to the coaching staff and personnel, we expect the Chiefs to take care of business and cover the spread on Thursday.
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Jackson has hit the 8 attempt mark in each of his four career games against Kansas City. While this dates back to 2018, Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme will allow the Chiefs to sit back and let Lamar pick up some easy gains on the ground and through the air. Although Lamar has rushed 8 or more times in each of the games against KC, he hasn’t picked up more than 6.5 YPC on average against this defense that never seems to bend nor break. Even with Derrick Henry in the house, the read option and running game will be a focal point for a Baltimore team that will want to get the rushing attack churning early in the season to minimize Lamar’s window for mistakes.
Pacheco is a hard nosed north-south runner that will give this newly formed Baltimore defense issues. Without Patrick Queen in the middle conducting this defense and a banged up Kyle Hamilton in the secondary, Pacheco’s quick jump cuts should break through into the secondary multiple times. Andy Reid’s scheme should turn to the run game early on in this game as the higher the score gets, the more it might favor Baltimore should Lamar stay hot throughout the game. Pacheco had 8 games last season where he hit this mark out of 14 games played.
With Mark Andrews now healthy, Isaiah Likely’s value has decreased, but heading into his 3rd season in Baltimore he’s a name to keep your eye on for prop bets and DFS lineups. Likely filled in for an injured Andrews towards the end of last season and produced TE1 performances, scoring 5 TDs during the final 5 weeks of the season. The athletic tight end will be competing for targets with Andrews and Flowers, while the rest of the receiving core isn’t more valuable than what Isaiah brings to the table as an extra blocker and reliable target.
Another Week 1 masterclass? Why not for Justice Hill, who scored twice in Baltimore's season opener last season. In an RB2 role with Baltimore, Hill is due to get around 10 touches and although Henry’s goal line presence will be of value, the Ravens could fool the Chiefs defense by placing Hill in the backfield to run the option with Lamar and company. The Ravens were 1st in run plays per game last season and with 30% of the opportunity share in 2023, look for Hill to be the unsung hero of the Ravens backfield on TNF.
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