As the NFL season kicks off, the excitement of analyzing last season's performances and betting on season-long stats for the upcoming season reaches a fever pitch. Among the myriad of prop bets available, focusing on individual player stats can be an intriguing approach, particular for fantasy football enthusiasts.
From quarterbacks looking to bounce back with new coaching staffs to emerging stars set to make their mark, we've identified the best bets for season-long player stats. Whether it's Kyler Murray capitalizing on a revitalized offense, Matthew Stafford's resurgence with a healthy receiving corps, or the reliable red zone presence of Jake Ferguson, these picks represent our best bets for the 2024 NFL season.
Let's explore why these 5 bets offer great value and the stats that support these predictions.
Although Kyler Murray has missed about half of his games during the last two seasons, the star Quarterback has a new-look coaching staff and offense at his disposal. With the Cardinals truly playing without many expectations, I expect Kyler to thrive this year and put up similar numbers to his sophomore season in the league.
In 2020 and 2021 - the two seasons Murray played all 16 games during the year - he put up 26 & 24 Pass TDs respectively. With Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride serving as the top receiving options while the running back core consisting of James Conner and Trey Benson will provide some play-action threat, this passing touchdown number should end up around 25 by the end of the season.
With a healthy Cooper Kupp and developing Puka Nacua on the roster, 22 or less passing TDs for Matt Stafford feels laughable. Stafford threw 41 touchdowns in his first season in LA and although he missed half the season in 2022 and was banged up in ‘23, still managed to account for 24 TDs last year.
His receiving core and offensive-minded coach are too good of a combo to bet against and in an NFC West that boasts some potent offensive units, the Rams are going to have to put up points to win ball games. Stafford was unlucky to finish with just 24 TDs last season and will sail past 23 this year.
Ferguson took that 2nd-year tight end leap in 2023, accounting for 5 touchdowns and a top 9-TE campaign. With the Cowboys sticking with the same names at wideout for next season and their top running back most likely Rico Dowdle, Ferguson should maintain a role as a red zone threat all season.
In his first 6 games of 2023, he scored just one touchdown, so this season expects a hotter start from the young tight end. We're predicting 800 yards and 8 touchdowns in Ferguson's third season with the Cowboys.
I’ve told myself never to invest in Bronco players since Sean Payton took over and so far, it’s worked out. Courtland Sutton is still the WR1 on this team but with the QB1 situation still up in the air, I’m not rushing after any of these players in fantasy or on season-long bets.
Sutton scored 10 TDs last season with Russell Wilson while playing three straight nearly-complete seasons in a row.
I’m not speculating the injury bug will hit, but for a player that will have to give his 100% and play an extreme amount of snaps in that elevation, I’m expecting a drop-off in numbers within a passing offense that raises a lot of questions.
A rookie receiver that has the talent to become one of the best in his class, Adonai Mitchell is simply too good not to put on the field. With Anthony Richardson’s scrambling ability to keep plays alive especially in the red zone, Mitchell should be able to get a handful of touchdowns this season just from those plays in particular.
At Texas, AD scored 11 touchdowns in 14 games - including two against Alabama and one each in the Big 12 title game and CFP Semifinal. He should establish himself as a red zone threat in what should be a much-improved Colts offense.