With the MVP award going to the best quarterback every season, the OPOY award has transitioned to more of a running back and wide receiver award over the past few years. Patrick Mahomes was the last QB to raise this trophy following his historic 2018 campaign.
Justin Jefferson won OPOY in 2022 while McCaffrey took home the honors last season after totaling 21 touchdowns for the 49ers.
Before we jump into our best bets for the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year, here is a look at the players with +2000 odds or better to win according to DraftKings Sportsbook:
Tyreek Hill (+700)
Christian McCaffrey (+750)
CeeDee Lamb (+900)
Ja’Marr Chase (+1200)
Breece Hall (+1500)
Justin Jefferson (+1500)
Saquon Barkley (+1600)
Bijan Robinson (+2000)
Of this group of players with the best odds, I’d say it is safe to rule out Justin Jefferson for a second title as his Quarterback situation is less than ideal. Although his target share and reception total shouldn’t take a dip, his yardage and YPC are some stats to monitor with Darnold or McCarthy.
Breece Hall is a fantastic player, but the Jets' offensive line and scheme with Rodgers might make for a slower-paced group. Hall has a chance to have some monster games, but as we’ve seen over the last few seasons he’s viable to put up some duds as well. When Rodgers was with Green Bay, none of his running backs ever came close to touching this award so we are going to leave Hall on the board for this one.
While this all predicates on health and if he plays on a $1 Million contract this season, Ja’Marr Chase has a real shot at this award. In the last 15 years stretching back to Chris Johnson’s OPOY win in 2009, no player has repeated or won this award twice - therefore McCaffrey and Jefferson are in uncharted territory. For Chase, he scored 13 touchdowns on 81 catches for 1455 yards in his rookie season when Cincy earned a trip to the Super Bowl.
For comparison, Tyreek Hill finished OPOY voting last season in 6th place with 119 catches for 1799 yards and 13 touchdowns. While Hill’s stats are better, another deep postseason run alongside over half a dozen touchdowns would catapult Chase into this race.
Without Burrow for a large chunk of 2023, he still produced an incredible season on 145 total targets. With Joey B back, the sky's the limit for Ja’Marr, who will have an even greater role with Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon no longer with the team.
Looking further down the odds board, we find some intriguing sleepers who have a clear path to make a run at the 2024 OPOY award. Our favorites from this group are St. Brown (Lions), Richardson (Colts), and Harrison Jr (Cardinals).
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2200)
Anthony Richardson (+4500)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+12000)
The Lions offense is stacked with talent between Goff, St. Brown, Gibbs, LaPorta, and Montgomery. However, there’s only one wide receiver on this list. The ultra-athletic and reliable Amon-Ra St. Brown finished last season with 119 catches, 1515 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
While these aren’t OPOY numbers just yet, he’s Goff’s #1 target and in the red zone, should get even more opportunities this season. When you think about past OPOY wideout winners, their teams performed well during the season, but their divisions had some potent offenses to keep games close and high-scoring.
With the NFC North, I believe there is a chance Amon-Ra picks up some additional scores and yardage in inner-divisional games that he failed to do last season (4 scores in six games).
While this has turned into a positional player award since 2018, Anthony Richardson might be an exception to this. Now fully healthy, the 2nd year QB has some Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton to his game that should be breaking through the cracks sometime soon.
Playing two full and two half games in his rookie campaign, AR15 threw for three TDs and ran for four - yes four touchdowns. He’s the most physically gifted Quarterback we’ve seen since Newton and with Indy’s offensive line and receiving core more than serviceable, it will just be up to Richardson to keep his body healthy.
Richardson has the best chance to break Hurts’ record of 15 rushing TDs in a season for a Quarterback and honestly, he might be the first Quarterback to reach 20 TDs in a season at some point in his young career.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is an extremely long shot to win this award. However, at +12000 which is behind guys like Ekeler, Sutton, Pittman, and Mostert, these odds in reality should be towards the +8000 mark. No rookie has won this award since Lawrence Taylor did so in 1981 on the defensive end.
That said, Justin Jefferson’s 128 receptions, 1809 yards, 9 total TDs season doesn’t seem too far-fetched for Harrison’s extreme ceiling should he come out as Murray’s favorite target from week one.
While this is the longest shot in OPOY betting history most likely, this revamped Cardinals offense should give MHJ the ball in his hands early and often and should he play every game this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finishes top three in receptions and top ten in red zone targets.
From there, it will be up to the Kyler connection to see if MHJ finishes with Puka-like numbers or better in 2024.