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We’ve reached the pivotal Week 17 of the NFL season. For this week’s Alloy Forecast, we’re breaking down another statistical trend that’s been profitable and stood the test of time. Earlier in the season, we built the Legatron Strategy. This strategy was focused on kickers and how they impacted games. It’s won 59% of games against the spread for close underdog bets since 2020 (58% this season).
This week, we wanted to look some more into kickers. We were interested to see if teams that struggle scoring touchdowns and rely on field goals, perform well against the spread. Our hypothesis proved correct. Bottom line, kicking covers!
What's the trend?
The one stat we’re looking at is Field Goal Attempts per Game. Teams with a high rate of field goal attempts are consistently on the opponent's side of the field within striking distance but lack the firepower to put the ball in the end zone. Teams that don’t score touchdowns generally don’t win many games. These teams may be devalued by oddsmakers due to their poor overall record and low scoring offenses. We figured the books may overvalue their opponents.
What does the data show?
This trend is profitable and has been for years. It specifically wins for heavy underdogs ATS. Since 2016, this trend has a return on investment of 11% and a win percentage of 57% (172-124-7 overall).
The data shows that teams that struggle converting with touchdowns and settle for more field goals are a profitable bet when their odds are at +5.5 or higher.
Here are your Week 17 games to bet with the Kicking Covers Trend:
*Tip: Be careful of betting teams with recent roster changes. The Colts will be starting Nick Foles (struggled mightily in Week 16) and the Raiders will be starting Jarrett Stidham (first career start).
Colts +5.5 @ Giants
Broncos +12.5 @ Chiefs
Saints +6.5 @ Eagles
Bears +6 @ Lions
Raiders +9.5 vs 49ers