COMPARISON SHOPPING AND MIDDLING THE PASSING YARDS
When the dust settled on the first couple handfuls of sports betting apps dropping in New Jersey a few years ago, we settled on five that presented varying odds to give us some comparison shopper advantages. Those five were DraftKings, FanDuel, William Hill, Points Bet and FOXBet.
Now, we are up to 19 apps available in the Garden State and some homework reveals there are basically nine different sets of odds to compare − those first five we have been looking at and BetMGM, Caesars, Golden Nugget and Hard Rock. (Almost all of the remaining mobile betting sites use the same odds as one of those metioned. And the one or two that don’t, use a platform that is not conducive to comparing odds, such as having only a phone presence and not one on the Internet to access via an easier-to-read PC or tablet.)
We bring this up because it is Super Bowl week and with so much money flying around, you want to grab every advantage you can. And with so many variance of odds/numbers around, what better time to try to middle the Passing Yards for what is surely one of the most anticipated QB matchups we have seen.
So after diving into all nine betting sites, here is where we finished with laying our cash:
TOM BRADY PASSING YARDS –
Over 290.5 (-125 HR) . . . $10/$8.00
Under 306.5 (-115 WH) . . . $10/$8.70
PATRICK MAHOMES PASSING YARDS –
Over 320.5 (-120 FB) . . . $10/$8.33
Under 332.5 (-115 GN) . . . $10/$8.70
So, in our $10 scenario (a nice round figure), the most you can lose on Brady is $2 if he throws for 307+ (+$8/-$10) and the most you can lose on Mahomes is $1.67 if he goes for 333+ (+$8.33/-10). That is a net worst-case loss of $3.67.
But . . .
If either middles their passing numbers you will snag a victory in the $15 area. And if they both do, you’re looking at a $33.70 profit. When you measure that against the small amount you could lose ($3.67), it is well worth the gamble.