The game is closing fast and there are lots of Props to consider, so let’s jump into some homework . . .
As you can tell from the chart below, the starting quarterbacks have been hitting the Over by a 15-5 rate in recent Super Bowls (8-2 for the NFC team’s starter, 7-3 for his AFC counterpart).
We pause here to show you the early lines we see so far for SB LIII, which are all over the place:
Jared Goff . . . 271.5 to 290.5
Tom Brady . . . 288.5 to 319.5
We bring those numbers up here because the only NFC Unders over the last 15 years have been the two posted 300+s and an abysmally low Rex Grossman 217.5 in 2007. (Yes, we already have an Over bet in place for the 271.5 Goff, which we found at FanDuelNJ.)
Tom Brady has been Over in last three SB appearances after being Under in the three before that. He was Over in the game before that -- his second appearance -- and because he had suffered an ankle injury in the AFC title game and Drew Bledsoe had come in to guide the Pats to victory, his status to start the SB in 2002 was iffy, so much so we could not find a number for him for that game, although there were some collective ”Patriots quarterbacks” props, which we ignored.
Here are the O/U on Super Bowl starting quarterback’s passing yardage back as far as we could find:
Pick: Jared Goff Yards Passing - Over 283.5 (-108)