Colts +5 at Chiefs
Ah, if only the playoffs started in mid-November. K.C. had just defeated Arizona to improve to 9-1 and their upside looked limitless. What happened next is what always seems to happen to the Chiefs - they hit a lull, lost 3 of their next 6 games, all against playoff teams, and were 1-6-1 ATS leading up to the Week 17 win over an Oakland team that had, for all intents and purposes, checked out. Contrast that with Indy, which has won 10 of 11 including last week’s dissection of Houston in the wild-card round. That game showed what Indy’s ‘D’ can do against a mobile quarterback, which bodes well here. The Colts won’t shut Patrick Mahomes down, but I question whether the Chiefs can score enough to make up for a defense that allowed more than 35 ppg over 5 games leading up to Week 17. I’m a believer in the theory that teams generally are who they are regardless of whether it’s the playoffs, and these two are heading in opposite directions, spreadwise. K.C. could rediscover its mojo, but I’m not feeling it.
Pick: Colts +5
Cowboys +7 at Rams
Does defense matter anymore in the NFL? The five teams ranked ahead of Dallas in scoring defense either didn’t make the playoffs (Tennessee, Jacksonville) or lost last weekend (Chicago, Baltimore, Houston). So what of the Cowboys? They don’t have the best defense and they certainly don’t have the best offense, but somehow they’ve managed to win their division and muddle their way into the divisional round, where they get my vote to cover the touchdown spread. The Rams are 4-7-2 ATS since beating the Chargers in Week 3, and the four covers came against San Francisco (twice), Arizona and Detroit. During that same stretch they were 0-5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) against eventual playoff teams. Dallas, meanwhile, was 6-1-1 against the number in the 8 games leading up to last weekend’s wild-card win against Seattle. One of those games was a Week 13 taming of a Saints offense that had been scoring at a 37 ppg clip. I know what you’re thinking -- does this guy ever pick a favorite? Well, yes. Tune in tomorrow.