Chargers +2½ @ Ravens
Pick: Chargers
My only trepidation in taking the Chargers here is that all the other wise guys like them too, and you know what happens when all the so-called “experts” agree on anything. But I can’t go against the Bolts, who are actually better on the road, where they’ve beaten KC, Pittsburgh and Seattle. They have better skill players and should avenge the 22-10 home loss to the Ravens two weeks ago, which was sandwiched between two division games. Lamar Jackson has been a revelation for Baltimore since taking over for Joe Flacco in Week 11 but is not considered a passing threat. He’s thrown only 3 interceptions in 7 starts but has fumbled 12 times (though losing only 4). The defense has earned its reputation, but the Ravens are 1-5 ATS as home favorites since Week 3 and barely scraped out a win last week against a Cleveland team that lost to L.A. by 24. Just sayin’.
Eagles +6½ @ CHICAGO
Pick: Eagles
Da Bears are on a 9-1 spread run, with the only blemish coming at the Giants, and are 7-1 at home this season. They have the best defense in the league and a second-year quarterback seemingly ready to break into the ranks of the elite. The Eagles, meanwhile, are riding a hot quarterback who has taken them back from the brink of elimination and come into this game believing they can beat anybody. So what gives? Well, the Birds’ defense, for one. The unit has allowed about 30 ppg in its last six games against teams not named Washington. That’s a real concern here. On the other side, Trubisky and head coach Matt Nagy haven’t faced the pressure of a playoff game, where every decision, every dropped pass, every blown coverage is magnified. Bottom line: I’m not sold on Chicago as a dominant team yet. I’ve taken the ‘dogs in the other wild-card games, and I have to go with my gut here instead of my head and take the Eagles. Something tells me Pederson and Foles have something up their collective sleeve to keep this one inside the number.