One of the most intriguing games on the Week 12 college football slate pits the LSU Tigers against the Florida Gators. Will LSU bounce back after a rough loss to Alabama, or will Florida's Swamp be too much of a home-field advantage?
Check out our betting preview for this iconic SEC game below. Enjoy the game and best of luck with all of your Week 12 betting action!
LSU opened up as a 5-point road favorite against Florida, but there were plenty of sharp bettors lining up to take the Gators. So much action has come in on Florida that most online sportsbooks are now dealing LSU -4 as of Tuesday morning. It seems that the smart money is expecting a letdown from this Tigers squad after last week's debacle at home.
There's been no interest in the total so far. Oddsmakers put out the line at 55 and that's where we still sit at the time of this writing. Folks are probably waiting to hear about the status of UF QB DJ Lagway before getting involved with the total.
LSU was beaten to a pulp last week on their home field by Alabama, as the Tigers just couldn't find an answer for the running ability of Jalen Milroe. They'll have to regroup quickly on the defensive side of the ball against a Florida offense that has improved little by little as the season has gone on.
The strength of this Tigers team has been their offense, as they rank 9th in 3rd down conversions and 25th in yards per play. Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns, so he's capable of terrorizing this Gators secondary. Nussmeier's favorite target has been Kyren Lacy, who has hauled in 46 receptions for 697 yards and 7 TDs.
Other than stopping running QBs, LSU has some additional holes on the defensive end. They rank just 86th in yards per pass allowed and 72nd in yards per rush allowed. That said, LSU is 4th in the country in sack rate, mainly thanks to Bradyn Swinson (8 sacks).
Florida has won just 2 conference games this season, but they can still go to a bowl with a couple more wins. The Gators were blown out last week by Texas, but they match up a whole lot better against this LSU team. Billy Napier needs a signature win this season after the school announced that he'd return in 2025.
Most reports have been positive about the health of QB DJ Lagway, who missed last week's game with a hamstring injury. Napier was expected Lagway to practice on Monday, so that's a great sign for Gator fans. Lagway's a former 5-star recruit who leads the team in passing yards (1,071).
Florida's defense hasn't been as dominant as in years past. The Gators rank outside the Top 100 in yards per pass allowed and they've been just mediocre at generating a pass rush. However, this unit does rank a respectable 33rd in red zone defense this season.
If you follow my Early Best Bets column, you know we grabbed +5.5 early on Monday morning. That said, I really like this spot for the Gators and would play them at anything over a field goal.
LSU is coming off a dream-crushing loss to Alabama and they're now out of the playoff race. I'm sure Brian Kelly will try to fire them up, but you have to wonder what type of effort they'll give here on the road. This game means a whole lot more to Florida, so we'll ride them here.
Prediction: Florida 28 - LSU 27