When No. 11 Alabama and No. 14 LSU clash at Tiger Stadium, it’s about more than just bragging rights — though that’s a big component — both teams need a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive and well. Only one can come out on top.
Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) is a 2.5-point favorite over LSU, and with only 4 games left in the season, the loser will most likely be knocked out of CFP contention.
Both teams are coming off recent stumbles in SEC games which adds even more intensity to this already smoking hot rivalry matchup.
Everyone knows that the key storyline in this game is the quarterback battle.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe has been a critical piece for the Tide, ultimately getting them to their 6-2 record. While he isn’t necessarily a perfect fit for new head coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense, Milroe’s versatility has kept Alabama competitive. We see this especially in close games.
Milroe has already accounted for 25 touchdowns, with a mix of rushing and passing that keeps defenses on their toes. He’s managed to turn pretty tough situations into first downs with his ability to scramble which has been crucial in Alabama’s wins over South Carolina and Georgia.
For LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, the season has been a bit more turbulent than Jalen’s.
Sure, he has looked brilliant at times, especially as a successor to Jayden Daniels, but his inconsistency has cost LSU some close games and it could come back to bite them in the end.
In their recent loss to Texas A&M, Nussmeier’s 3 interceptions effectively derailed what was a 10-point halftime lead, leading to LSU’s first loss in 104 games when up by double digits at the break. That’s a statline you never want your name associated with.
As far as the QBs are concerned, we have to give the edge to Alabama. Milroe’s stability and decision-making under pressure give the Tide a slight advantage here. This might not be the end-all-be-all, but it’s a major factor heading into Saturday’s matchup.
The battle in the trenches will unquestionably be pivotal. This is especially true with LSU missing a key offensive lineman.
LSU’s rushing attack has struggled all season, ranking last in the SEC with an dismal average of 115 YPG. Without starting guard Garrett Dellinger, who was sidelined with a high-ankle sprain and will not be back in time for this game, LSU’s offensive line will struggle to establish any ground game against Alabama’s defensive front.
Although Alabama’s run defense isn’t what we’d call dominant — they’re allowing 151 YPG in SEC matchups — it may be enough to limit an LSU ground attack that’s already hurting.
Again, we have to give the edge to Alabama in this area. The Tide’s defensive line should have no problems containing LSU’s RBs, especially with Dellinger out.
One of the biggest challenges for Alabama has been protecting Milroe. The QB has been sacked an insane 11 times in the last 4 games alone! The offensive line has to do a better job at protecting their biggest asset.
If that wasn’t bad enough, LSU ranks 9th nationally in sacks, with 28 on the season. Former Oregon transfer Bradyn Swinson leads LSU’s defensive front with 8 sacks to his name, and linebacker Whit Weeks has also been an emerging threat.
Of course, last year, Milroe found success on the ground against LSU, scoring 4 rushing TDs, but if LSU’s pressure can break through, and it most likely will, it could be a very different game this time around.
Finally, we’re giving the edge to LSU for the pass rush. Milroe’s vulnerability to sacks might give LSU’s pass rush a chance to disrupt Alabama’s offensive rhythm and keep them from making breakout plays.
The betting odds show Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite and after looking at how these teams stack up, we have to agree with that spread.
Despite their challenges, analytical models undeniably favor Alabama, giving them a 69.6% chance of winning. We’re going to side with them, although, we wouldn’t necessarily put it as high as that.
LSU’s home-field advantage might keep them competitive throughout the 60 minutes, but Alabama’s resilience in critical situations, combined with Milroe’s clutch play, could give the Tide the slight edge overall.
BettorsInsider Pick: Alabama -2.5
Alabama’s experience in close games and Milroe’s dual-threat abilities put them in a good spot to handle LSU’s defensive strengths.
While LSU’s pass rush is dominant, the Tigers’ offensive struggles and missing offensive lineman could make it difficult to keep pace with Alabama. We’re expecting a tight game, but Alabama should cover the spread, potentially winning by a touchdown in this must-win SEC showdown.