In this highly anticipated Week 6 SEC clash, Texas A&M hosts the unbeaten Missouri Tigers at Kyle Field. Obviously, we’re expecting tons of bets on this matchup so we’re giving you the total analysis and predictions.
While the Aggies have reeled off four straight wins, including a grind-it-out victory over Arkansas, Missouri enters as a +2.5 underdog with a solid shot to extend their perfect season.
Here’s why we think backing the Tigers is the smarter bet this week.
Currently, Texas A&M is listed as 2.5-point favorites. However, that line feels shaky to us.
The Aggies struggled offensively against Arkansas, punting on nine of twelve drives and relying on turnovers for favorable field position. Without those breaks, A&M’s scoring would have been much, much lower.
The Aggies haven't faced a defense quite like Missouri's, and that looks like it could be their downfall for this game.
Missouri’s defense ranks among the best in key metrics. This includes ranking fourth in available yards allowed per play. Even though Vanderbilt pushed them to double overtime last week, Missouri’s defense held strong. They only allowed two regulation touchdowns.
The Tigers are also excellent at limiting big plays, ranking 13th in net EPA per drive. That cannot be overlooked.
On the other hand, Texas A&M has struggled without quarterback Conner Weigman, who’s been out since Week 1.
While backup Marcel Reed has managed to do the job, the Aggies have been inconsistent, ranking just 60th in net EPA/drive. Missouri’s defense should be able to handle an offense that has been overly reliant on defensive turnovers.
Missouri has a more complete and rested team heading into this matchup.
Texas A&M’s defense is still fairly vulnerable. This is especially true in the passing game, where they rank 90th in EPA/pass defense. Missouri’s efficient and turnover-free approach (ranking fifth nationally in turnovers per game) will keep them in control.
Missouri’s balanced attack, led by quarterback Brady Cook, we think will thrive against an Aggie secondary that allowed Arkansas to find success last week. The Tigers don't give the ball away often, which means A&M won’t get the same field-position boosts they've depended on.
With Missouri’s defense and turnover efficiency, they should cover the +2.5 spread and potentially pull off the outright upset.
Given the way both teams match up, Missouri is a more reliable choice, especially considering the fatigue Texas A&M might still be feeling from last week’s physical battle with Arkansas.
Looking at the total of 48.5 points, we can’t help but feel that the under feels like a strong bet.
Missouri's offensive game is efficient but not exactly explosive. They rank near the bottom in big-play passing.
Instead, Missouri grinds out drives. This works in their favor against an Aggie defense that’s allowed opponents to run for almost four yards per carry.
For Texas A&M, it’s been a slog offensively since Weigman’s injury. Even if he returns, the Aggies are unlikely to light up Missouri’s stingy defense.
Missouri's ability to limit both the run and the pass should keep Texas A&M from scoring much. The Aggies' struggles over the last two games (only scoring 47 points combined) should continue.
While the Aggies will try to lean on their defense to keep things close, it’s hard to imagine this game turning into a shootout.
Expect a low-scoring affair with these two teams staying well below the 48.5 total.
Missouri's defense is elite, and their offense is somewhat methodical. Add in their advantage in the turnover battle, and they’ll be a tough out for Texas A&M, especially given the Aggies' inconsistency on offense.
Missouri should cover the spread, and a potential outright win is well within reach.