Penn State faces Illinois in Week 5, and both teams enter this Big Ten clash with the most confidence.
Illinois is ranked 19th nationally, having survived tough battles against Kansas and Nebraska. #9 Penn State, on the other hand, has dominated its competition despite a shaky 34-27 win over Bowling Green.
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These are the odds and betting lines for the game.
Moneyline: Penn State -900, Illinois +600
Spread: Penn State -17.5
Total Points (O/U): 47.5
The line opened at Penn State -18 and has only shifted slightly to -17.5, keeping it firmly above the key number of 17. The over/under has settled at 47.5, a consensus across sportsbooks. You might find better deals at some of the sportsbooks if you shop around.
Illinois has been led by head coach Brett Bielema, whose team has been solid, especially in close games.
The Illini rank 2nd in turnover margin (+7) and have a stellar pass defense. They’ve allowed just 4.4 net yards per attempt, good for 14th in the nation.
Their defense ranks 24th in EPA/dropback, showing they can stymie passing attacks.
However, Illinois’ run defense is far from elite, ranking 78th in rush success rate and 108th in stuff rate. These numbers hint at a potential problem when facing Penn State’s potent rushing game.
At quarterback, Luke Altmyer has shined. The Ole Miss transfer boasts an 84.7% adjusted completion rate (3rd in FBS) and has thrown 10 TDs without a single interception. His efficiency has been key to Illinois’ success, though their offense lacks explosiveness, ranking 78th in that category.
We’re not so sure that this offense is enough to overpower Penn State.
Penn State is rolling on offense. They’re ranked 6th in EPA/play and leading the nation in yards per dropback at 11.1. That’s not bad at all in their competitive conference.
They’ve been dominant in the run game as well, averaging a monstrous 13.4 yards per successful rush, ranking 5th nationally.
Quarterback Drew Allar has taken a big leap this season, completing 71% of his passes and pushing the ball downfield more effectively with 11.4 air yards per target (10th in FBS).
Defensively, Penn State is equally imposing, ranking 6th in yards allowed per rush (3.0). Their secondary holds opponents to a 51% completion rate (9th), but they are vulnerable to big plays, allowing a completion rate of 20+ yard passes at an 80th national ranking. If Illinois’ offense takes a few more risks, they might just be able to exploit this weakness.
Penn State -17.5 feels like a hefty spread, but they have the balance on both sides of the ball to cover.
While Illinois’ defense is tough against the pass, their run defense is a bit shaky, and Penn State is nothing less than lethal on the ground. The Nittany Lions should be able to control the tempo and keep Altmyer’s Illini offense off the field for the better part of the game.
For Illinois to have a chance to cover, they’ll need to win the turnover battle and stop Penn State’s run game. This seems unlikely given their weak rush defense metrics, but it’s what must happen.
The over/under of 47.5 seems right in line with expectations. With Penn State’s ability to explode for big plays and Illinois’ efficient but conservative offense, the under is appealing here.
Best Bet: Penn State -17.5
Penn State is a different beast at home, especially in a primetime “white out” game at Beaver Stadium.
Drew Allar and Penn State’s run game should be too much for Illinois, and the Illini’s offensive style doesn’t lend itself to keeping up in a high-scoring affair.
BettorsInsider Final Score Prediction: Penn State 34, Illinois 14.
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