Spread: Baylor -3 vs. BYU +3.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Baylor looks to bounce back as they continue Big 12 play, hosting the undefeated No. 22 BYU Cougars on Saturday at McLane Stadium. The Bears (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) are coming off a painful and close overtime loss to Colorado, while BYU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) dominated Kansas State with a 38-9 win.
Both teams have intriguing storylines entering this matchup, but the odds lean slightly toward the home team despite BYU’s undefeated start to the season. Once you start peeling back the layers it’s easy to see why the Bears have a fighting chance despite being 2-2.
Baylor is favored by 3 points according to BetMGM. To top that off, the game has an over/under of 45.5.
This line may surprise some bettors given BYU's hot start and Baylor’s recent heartbreak. However, Baylor’s strong home presence and the inconsistencies in BYU’s recent performance might explain the line slightly favoring the Bears.
Baylor’s defense remains one of the best in the Big 12. Rushing defense and success on early downs is undoubtedly the reason for their dominant D.
They’ll need that strength to stifle BYU’s offense, which, despite being 4-0, has shown some vulnerabilities.
BYU ranks second in the Big 12 in points allowed per game (12.8), but their offense, led by Jake Retzlaff, hasn’t been quite as dominant. This is where we think Baylor will try to exploit them.
Meanwhile, Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has shown promise since taking over in Week 3, notably avoiding turnovers. However, he’s still looking for a signature win, and BYU’s improved defense will test him.
On paper, BYU’s 38-9 win over Kansas State looks dominant. However, a deeper dive into the game shows it wasn’t as clean as it seemed.
Kansas State outgained BYU by over 100 yards and ran 24 more plays, despite the lopsided score. A 3-0 turnover differential and a wild punt return touchdown were key to BYU’s big win, but they might not be so lucky on the road this week, especially against a much more cautious Baylor.
BYU’s offense still feels like a work in progress. They’re going up against a Baylor defense that is among the top 10 in the nation in both rushing and passing success rates.
If the Bears can limit BYU’s rushing attack and force Retzlaff to beat them through the air, Baylor’s defense could control the game and walk away with the win.
Despite their gut-wrenching loss last week (it was tough for us to watch), this is a prime spot for Baylor to regroup.
They’re back home, and head coach Dave Aranda will have them motivated. The Bears have looked significantly better offensively since Robertson took over at quarterback, and he’ll be expected to keep them competitive throughout the game.
Baylor’s offense has picked up its pace, especially on standard downs. Beyond that, Robertson’s chemistry with receivers like Hal Presley is growing. They’ll be tested against BYU’s linebacking duo of Harrison Taggart and Jack Kelly, but Baylor’s attack is well-balanced enough to find success.
As long as they avoid turnover issues — which doomed Kansas State — Baylor’s offense should put enough pressure on BYU’s defense to wear them down. We don’t see this being a problem with Baylor.
This is a great spot for the Bears to take advantage of some favorable home conditions and a BYU team that, despite its record, has had a few fortunate bounces.
This game sets up as a tough battle, but Baylor has the edge in a bounce-back spot at home.
BYU is likely overrated at this stage due to their recent win over Kansas State, which looks shakier under closer inspection. Baylor’s defense should be the best unit on the field, and Robertson is showing enough improvement to believe the Bears can handle business at McLane Stadium.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Baylor 24, BYU 20
Best Bet: Baylor -2.5 (-120). You can confidently take Baylor up to -3 at (-110). Expect a tight game with Baylor pulling out the win in a must-win situation to keep their season on track.