In a massive Week 5 clash, Oklahoma travels to face Auburn in what could define the trajectory of both teams’ seasons.
Oklahoma, fresh off a frustrating loss to Tennessee, needs a bounce-back win. Auburn on the other hand is looking to find some offensive rhythm after struggling in its last game.
This SEC matchup carries the usual high stakes as both programs aim to avoid falling further behind in their respective conference races.
When: Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Televised: ABC
#21 Oklahoma: -3.5 -108
Auburn: o45.5 -110
Oklahoma comes into this matchup as a slight 3.5-point favorite. Given Auburn’s offensive inconsistency, it’s clear why oddsmakers lean toward the Sooners.
The over/under is set at 45.5 points, which means they’re also looking at a somewhat low-scoring game between two teams still trying to establish offensive identities. While Oklahoma's defense ranks high in turnovers, Auburn’s inability to control the clock—last in the nation in time of possession—adds another interesting dynamic to this spread.
Oklahoma’s season took a hit last week in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee. The Sooners have made a key quarterback change, bringing in Michael Hawkins Jr. to replace the struggling Jackson Arnold.
Hawkins showed flashes of potential against the Vols, completing 11 of 19 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown. His ability to scramble adds a new dimension to an offense that has been stagnant. It’s not the brilliance we expect from a QB at a program like Oklahoma’s but hopefully, he’ll find his rhythm soon.
If Hawkins can keep the ball moving and avoid turnovers, Oklahoma’s defense is good enough to keep them in control of this game. The Sooners lead the country in takeaways, forcing 12 turnovers in their first four games.
Auburn, on the other hand, is near the bottom of the national rankings with 14 turnovers, including six lost fumbles. Oklahoma’s defense should capitalize on Auburn’s sloppy play and give their offense more opportunities to score. If Hawkins can get into it, this could be a potent combination.
In the run game, expect Oklahoma to lean on their ground attack, especially after struggling against Tennessee’s defense.
Auburn’s defense has been solid, but if the Sooners can establish a rhythm early, it will take the pressure off Hawkins and allow them to control the game.
Auburn’s season hasn’t been pretty, but they’re still a program that grinds it out.
Their passing game has been boom or bust, depending on the opponent.
Auburn threw for ten touchdowns in their two wins but has looked disastrous in their losses, with eight interceptions. The return of Payton Thorne at quarterback could be the boost they need, especially after a poor showing against Arkansas. They’ll need to change something before heading into a game against the team with the top turnovers.
If Auburn can keep the offense balanced and avoid the major mistakes that have plagued them all season, they could make this a competitive game.
The Tigers have the ability to hit big plays through the air, and against an aggressive Oklahoma defense, they might find some openings downfield.
While both teams have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, Oklahoma’s defensive ability to force turnovers gives them the edge in this matchup.
Auburn’s offense has been unreliable, and even though they’ll be playing at home, the turnovers and inconsistency at quarterback make it hard to trust them in this spot. It’s just a bad combination for the Tigers.
Expect Oklahoma to clean up some of the mistakes from last week’s loss and ride their defense to a solid win. The Sooners will likely play a conservative game on offense, leaning on the run while letting Hawkins settle in. This should be enough to get the job done against an Auburn team that can’t seem to get out of its own way.
Best Bet: Take Oklahoma -3.5. Their ability to create turnovers and Auburn’s turnover issues make this the safer play.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Auburn 17. The total should stay under 45.5, with both defenses keeping things tight, but Oklahoma’s offense will do just enough to cover the spread.