Rutgers (+28) @ Indiana (49)
Pick: Over 49
What am I missing here? Maryland scored 48 all by itself last week against Rutgers. Is Indiana’s offense as good as Maryland’s? No. But they did just hang 31 on Michigan State in East Lansing before heading into a bye week. Maybe Indiana comes out a little flat? But as Bart Scott would say, this Rutgers defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Can Rutgers get into double digits, or even close to the 24 points that Ball State scored on Indiana? The answer is probably somewhere in between. This feels like one of those games that has the side correlated with the total since the point spread is so high. If Indiana is to cover, the game should go over 49. If Rutgers is to cover, it’s probably because the Hoosiers just didn’t score enough. Four touchdowns is just too much for me to lay, so I’ll go over expecting Indiana to score at least five touchdowns and Rutgers to take care of the rest.
Michigan State (+10.5) @ Wisconsin (40.5)
Pick: Michigan State +10.5
Are we sure Wisconsin is this good? Michigan State may not be ranked but the Spartans certainly will be a bowl team in 2019 and probably will win at least eight games. Wisconsin feels a little overrated in this spot thanks to a blowout victory against Michigan three weeks ago. The Badgers had a very unimpressive 24-15 win in their next Big 10 game against Northwestern. Their non-conference opponents have been cupcake after cupcake. While the Spartans didn’t play well at all in their lone non-conference loss against Arizona State, the Sun Devils have gotten themselves into the Top 25 so maybe that outcome said more about Arizona State than initially expected. Michigan State’s other loss was to Ohio State who is blowing out everyone in sight. This is a nice buy low spot on the green and white in a game they might be able to win outright.
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