In one of the most anticipated early-season college basketball matchups, the #9 North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to Allen Fieldhouse to take on the #1 Kansas Jayhawks. These teams may have similar rankings, but their roster construction couldn't be more different.
The Jayhawks will lean on their frontcourt, led by super senior Hunter Dickinson and freshman sensation Flory Bidunga. North Carolina is led by it's backcourt, including their own super senior R.J. Davis, who returns to the Tar Heels after averaging 21.2 PPG last season.
Kansas finished last season 23-11 and lost Kevin McCullar and Johnny Furphy to the NBA Draft. They retooled this offseason with one of the best recruiting classes in the country and a transfer portal overhaul that included Zeke Mayo from SDSU, David Coit from NIU, and Rylan Griffen from Alabama.
UNC finished last season 29-8, losing in the Sweet 16 to Alabama. The Tar Heels lost Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram, and Cormac Ryan this offseason. They did not hit the transfer portal but did add a pair of 5-star prospects in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell.
Kansas checks every box you're looking for when betting on college basketball this early in the season. They start 4 seniors and a junior, but also added depth with senior Zeke Mayo, 5-star freshman Flory Bidunga, and 4-star freshman Rakease Passmore. Mayo led all scorers in the Jayhawks' opener with 19 points.
The question bettors will have to answer is how effective Kansas can be slowing down RJ Davis, who looks like he will be one of the top scorers in the nation this season.
The total opened at 154.5 points with an implied final score of 81-74 in favor of the Jayhawks.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 7.5 | 310 | O 158.5 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | -7.5 | -395 | U 158.5 |
At this stage of the season, I think Kansas (-7.5) is the only bet you can make here. They have an edge in experience and a much deeper roster at this point in the season. If this game was being played later in the season, giving Jackson and Powell time to develop, we may feel differently, but we have to bet on Kansas given this is both teams' second game of the year.
Looking at the total, sportsbooks have essentially set this number at the two teams scoring average last season. UNC averaged 81 PPG in 2023-24, while Kansas averaged 75 PPG.
RJ Davis is such a tough matchup, but the Kansas frontcourt should feast in halfcourt sets. This should be an efficient game, with neither team wasting possessions. UNC will want to push the pace, and we don't expect Kansas to back down at home. With that in mind, my slight lean in this game is to bet the over.
In addition to the Kansas bet, we like two player props from the super seniors in Friday's matchup:
The only way Davis doesn't cover his points prop on Friday is if this game gets out of hand early. He has gone over this number in 11 of his last 14 games dating back to last season and kicked off this year with 24 points and 7 assists in 33 minutes.
When looking at Dickinson's points + rebounds prop, it's worth considering how he started off last season for the Jayhawks. He covered this prop in 10 of his first 14 games, including 21 rebounds against Kentucky and 20 rebounds against Tennessee. He put up 16 points and 6 rebounds in 21 minutes in the Jayhawks' opening game and could feast against an unproved UNC frontcourt.
Enjoy the first big matchup of the 2024 college basketball season!