And then there were eight! It's hard to believe that we're already to the Elite 8 portion of the NCAA Tournament. Both the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Clemson Tigers pulled off dramatic upsets to get to this point, and both teams are looking to keep dancing.
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BetMGM is currently offering up the best price on this bad boy, as every other sportsbook has this total a full point lower. I cashed an Under with UConn in their Sweet 16 blowout win over San Diego State and don't mind running it back one more time.
UConn has shown the ability to build big leads early on in games and then play a more slow and controlled type of tempo the rest of the way. That's exactly what the Huskies did against the Aztecs on Thursday evening, and with them being favored by 8.5 over the Illini, I could see a similar result.
Sure, Illinois loves to play at a fast pace, so that is a bit of a concern in this one. However, UConn ranks just 138th in field goal attempts per game. If the Huskies have their way, this game has an excellent chance of staying in the 140s.
Lots of people think that Illinois has an awful defense, but the numbers suggest otherwise. The Illini ranks a respectable 32nd in defensive efficiency and 27th at defending all 2-point shots.
UConn has one of the top defenses in the land, as they rank 6th in points allowed, 4th in efficiency, and 3rd in effective field goal percentage allowed. Look for Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton to find a way to slow down Terrence Shannon Jr. enough for this game to stay Under!
I picked this one up at FanDuel for a price of -122, but I'm okay if you want to play 7.5 at -105 over at DraftKings or BetMGM. Guerrier has a tough matchup on deck against UConn, but this number is 3.5 points below his yearly median of 10 points.
The 6'7" forward may get limited chances against UConn big man Donovan Clingan, but we can't ignore the fact that Guerrier's gone over this total in 25 of his 37 ball games during the '23-24 campaign.
Guerrier shoots the ball decently from downtown, and it wouldn't surprise me if he knocks down a couple of 3-pointers in this one. He averages about 7 field goal attempts per contest and around 3 free throw attempts. Give me the Over!
I played this over at BetMGM with a juice of -125. Though I'm not crazy about the juice, I love that Clingan's median point total this season is just 12. It's also nice that the Under is 21-11 this season against this prop line.
Clingan is a beast of a man at 7'2" tall, so I get why this play will be scary for some folks. That being said, here's a trend we just can't pass up: Clingan has scored 14 or fewer points in 16 of his 19 games away from home.
The Fighting Illini isn't known for having a stingy defense, but it's worth mentioning that they rank a solid 27th at defending two-point shots. Clingan will get into double figures, but we I still believe he stays Under this point total.