It’s Friday in November, so you know what that means; it’s an NBA Cup game! With Portland traveling to Houston, this will be the first meet-up between these two teams this year. Winning their first cup game, Portland has been on a hot streak lately. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 only falling to OKC. Houston has been a tear though, winning 6 of their last 7 games. This Houston roster is incredibly deep, and with everyone back from injury, they’ll be a challenging matchup for Portland.
Portland has been a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. The expectations for this group were at rock bottom, so their six wins is impressive. They’ve found most of their success on the defensive end of the floor. Playing a hardnosed physical defense with two top-tier centers locking down the post. This roster has something with Toumani Camara. The toss-in player from Phoenix in the Nurkic Ayton trade has proven to be the most impactful player involved. The 4-year player out of Dayton and Georgia has become one of the most efficient defenders in the league. He’s shut down elite offensive talent like Trae Young and Anthony Edwards. He is stout as a point-of-attack defender.
The offense has been a whole other story, as they have struggled to find the bottom of the net at times. Shaedon Sharpe has made a big impact since returning from injury, but this team's shooting variance is wild. They can shoot 58% from 3 one night and 9% the next; it’s truly a coin flip.
This matchup might be tough for them as Houston has downhill scorers. Portland has the personnel to slow them down, but they'll fall behind quickly if they can’t keep up on the offensive end. Generally, we feel that Houston is the better team coming into the matchup, but Portland has surprised us recently, so this could be a toss-up.
Houston is a strange team, with a mixture of veteran talent and a young core. With Jarbari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Dillon Brooks, and Amen Thompson, they are among the top 10 in defensive rating; this squad is formidable. They use this length on offense, too, as one of the few teams committed to post-scoring. Houston is fine giving the ball to Sengun and letting him work in the post.
This team is weirdly divided in scoring; no one on the roster averages above 20 points a game. Jalen Green is leading the team with 19 points a game, but his efficiency has dropped off since the beginning of the year. The struggle from 3 has been the main issue with Houston this year. They are in the bottom 3 in the league, even below Portland in 3%. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet have struggled with the deep ball, averaging around 33%. That won’t cut it in the modern NBA, though.
Beyond the bottom-tier three-point shooting, this offense has been decent. They lead the league in shot attempts and are top 6 in scoring so far. They may not be efficient, but Houston can brute force a win through volume alone. It doesn’t hurt that they’re in the top 10 for blocks and top 5 for steals on the year. Over the last seven games, they have been nasty on defense, battling down low especially. They’re second in the league rebounding-wise, so they have been earning all these extra shot attempts.
Overall, this matchup against Portland will be intriguing. Portland has the tools to win the interior battle and has been much hotter from three than Houston. We still think Houston, with home-court advantage, will take this one, but if Portland is feeling it, this could be an extremely even game
Alperen Sengun Under 19.5 Points: Sengun has been leading this team in scoring in the last few games. However, Portland has one of the best center lineups in the league defensively. The size of Donovan Clingan and the skill of Robert Williams will make Sengun’s life hard. We think they’ll chase him out of the paint tonight!
Toumani Camara 2+ Made Threes: With such a solid defensive lineup, Houston will likely be able to keep Portland out of the paint tonight. Guys like Camara will see far more opportunities to shoot if that happens. Camara has been hitting his three well, too, so if he increases his attempts tonight, making two should be doable!
Donovan Clingan 7+ Rebounds: This will be a point of emphasis for the Blazers tonight, not allowing Houston to work them on the boards. With Clingan likely getting a solid share of the center minutes tonight, we expect him to be locked in. He’s been a good rebound thus far, but he will be a different store against one of the best teams in the league. Regardless, we like this line a lot!