The first half of tonight's TNT NBA doubleheader features a rematch of last season's Western Conference Final. The Dallas Mavericks travel to the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both of these teams sit with 2-1 records through the first 3 games of the season.
Dallas opened as 3.5-point favorites when the odds posted for this matchup, with early action on the Mavericks moving this consensus line to -5. The total opened at 226.5 with action on the under dropping it to 222.5 at most sportsbooks.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | -5 | +142 | O 226.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +5 | -169 | U 226.5 |
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Let's start by looking at some of the key betting trends in this series:
Dallas is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Minnesota.
The total has finished under in 5 of the last 6 Mavs games and 4 of their last 5 road games.
Minnesota is 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games.
Minnesota was 3-1 against the Mavs in the regular season but dropped 4 of 5 games in the Western Conference Finals.
We really like the under here but you've got to move quickly because the number is moving away from us. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Looking at scoring defense last season, the Mavericks finished 7th and the Timberwolves finished 8th. Both teams also rank in the bottom-third of the league in pace of play.
In four regular season matchups last season, these teams only played to a total over 223 points once. Give us the under 222.5 as our best bet in this Western Conference showdown.
We have to believe this number is deflated after Luka's outing against the Jazz (15 points). However, he topped this number in 6 of 7 games against the Wolves last season, and has reached it in 2 of his first 3 games this season.
He finished last season averaging over 51 pts + reb + ast in games against Minnesota. Luka's usage remains among the highest in the league this year at 33.8%, meaning he should have the ball in his hands for most of the game and should have plenty of opportunities to cover this prop.
Gafford's points + rebounds prop is set right at his season average, but this matchup is a slight downgrade compared to the schedule he's played. The Timberwolves are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and we expect this game to play at a slower pace than previous Mavs games.
He averaged 17.5 Pts + Rebs in the Western Conference Finals, but is down to under 20 minutes per game this season with Lively taking on a bigger role in year 2.
After putting up 24 points in Minnesota's home opener, we're betting on a monster game from Edwards tonight. He had games of 36 and 44 against Dallas in the regular season last year and topped this prop in games 4 and 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
This will be the first time Ant gets to face a Dallas team that will have Kyrie, Luka, and Klay on the court at the same time. He should be able to find one of them in a matchup every time down the court. Give us Edwards to score 27+ points tonight.
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