With the NBA preseason underway, let’s take a look at current MVP odds and who we think can walk away with the award this year.
G Luka Doncic (+370)
C Nikola Jokic (+400)
G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+425)
F Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800)
G Anthony Edwards (+1200)
With four NBA MVP awards, Nikola Jokic would join the elite company of Kareem (6), Jordan (5), Russell (5), LeBron (4), and Wilt (4). The case against Nikola Jokic winning his 4th MVP is a tough one as the Joker still led Denver to one of the top records in the entire league while putting up 26.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 9.0 APG on some of the best splits of his career.
The case for Jokic mostly comes in the form of the extremely difficult West and the lack of consistency in the supporting cast. We have already seen signs of Jamal Murray fading late in the season, with injuries still a massive concern.
Christian Braun will try to fill the KCP role for this team after losing one of their top defenders and 3-point shooters. Furthermore, it looks like the young talents of Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and Peyton Watson are the key depth players for Denver, and combined, they lack a lot of experience on both sides of the ball.
Jokic’s assist numbers are due to drop slightly and in this current voting system, I believe we would need to see the Nuggets control the #1 seed in the west and Nikola average around a triple-double to join the elite company I mentioned earlier.
For Luka Doncic to win MVP, he has to play better defense. We saw this throughout the postseason where he would get picked on - possession after possession. As Doc Rivers alluded to once, it’s really all about what matchups you can expose in the playoffs. Boston exposed Doncic’s defensive woes and controlled the series early on offensively because of it. Should Luka lose some weight and get quicker on the defensive end, the MVP is in his sightlines.
Luka finished 3rd in voting last season, 8th in 2023, 5th in 2022, and 6th in 2021. After averaging 34 PPG, 9.8 APG, and 9.2 RPG, I don’t think the voters are letting Doncic slide again if the Mavericks finish in a top-four spot out west. And a top four spot out west seems extremely plausible especially with the aggressive Nico Harrison making the phone calls.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Klay Thompson, Jaden Hardy, and Quentin Grimes make for an extremely solid supporting backcourt next to Irving and Doncic, who both could average over 6 APG. Naji Marshall is an extremely underrated wing pickup as he can play on both ends and get physical for this team down the stretch.
I could easily see him sharing minutes with Thompson as Kidd tries to run more offense/defense lineups later in games. As for Luka, this has to be the year. 34 PPG last season without an MVP award has to hurt, but with Dallas a true championship contender now, the voters will be leaning Luka’s way all season - he just has to play a little defense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the league, there’s no doubt. After finishing 2nd in MVP voting last season, his +425 odds are well warranted. With that being said, there are two sides to the SGA MVP vote.
On the positive end, the Thunder are the most complete team in the West. With the additions of Caruso and Hartenstein, Sam Presti addressed the defense and rebounding concerns while ensuring both these pickups can play off the ball and off the OKC ball handlers.
Shai is a back-to-back NBA 1st Team honoree and in his best pro season last year, averaged 30.1 PPG, 6.2 APG, and 5.5 RPG on nearly 3 stocks per contest. His underrated defense is something that could separate himself from Doncic and with the Thunder the favorite to win the conference or at least snag the 1st seed in my eyes, Shai is not a bad bet at all.
The downside to SGA’s MVP case is the supporting cast. Unlike Luka Doncic who will have the ball in his hands if it isn’t in Kyrie’s hands, SGA and the Thunder play a “everyone eats” style. Jalen Williams and Chet will have their big games, while new additions Caruso and Hartenstein will contribute in their own ways.
With Josh Giddey gone though, the ball could end up in Shai’s hands more often than not, and with shooters coming off the bench such as Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, the assist numbers could rise this year and hit the 7.0 mark.
With Shai, there are a handful of more positives than negatives, but when comparing him to Doncic and his stat line, the Thunder will have to finish as the 1 or 2 seed out west for the MVP consideration.
Stephen Curry hasn’t finished better than 8th in MVP voting since 2020-21, but without Klay Thompson and the Warriors nearly getting written off as contenders in the West, could this be the year Curry goes for a career-high in points per game?
While 32 points per contest is not an easy task for a player who doesn’t take a lot of twos nor gets to the free throw line often, the absence of Klay Thompson and the lack of additional shooting on the roster could give Steph enough opportunity to single-handedly shoot his way into Warrior wins.
I am never one to count out Steph, nor Steve Kerr, to shock the media and the basketball world so I’m keeping tabs on Curry’s MVP odds which currently sit at +5000 alongside the likes of Ja Morant and Devin Durant. Should Golden State find themselves inside the top six to avoid a PIT spot, Curry will most likely get inside the top 4 for this award, and at +5000 preseason odds, I’m willing to take that risk.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+425)
Luka Doncic (+425)
Stephen Curry (+5000)
Nikola Jokic (+400)
Joel Embiid (+2500)
Jalen Brunson (+1800)