With training camp right around the corner and pre-season starting in less than a month, we are nearly back to the NBA! Today, we’ll look towards the east for our early look at team win totals. Diving into some of our top picks for the upcoming NBA season futures market and why we think some teams are already overrated!
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There’s not a lot to say about the defending champs. The Celtics will likely be the best team in the East again this year. They managed to hold a majority of their key players together through the off-season. Only losing a few deep bench player but retaining their entire starting core. This team is set to be the first real challenger to make a run at a repeat championship since the Curry Warriors in the late 2010s. The East looks thinner at the bottom, too, with multiple teams expected to tank hard this year. As the only team to pass 60 wins last year, we think they’ll be able to do it again. The Over is currently sitting at about -110, so you should jump on it before the line begins to climb.
The Knicks might be the most exciting team in the East. After making some big splashes in the trade market, they have one of the most electric teams from top to bottom. They reunite the epic Villanova basketball team with Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Donte DiVincenzo—an elite core that includes Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson. There is a ton to be excited about on this roster, and they could be dogs in the regular season. We think they will clean up against opponents all season if they can avoid the injury bug, which is our main concern. Injuries have plagued the Knicks, especially last year. Losing multiple starts in the regular season and almost all of them by the second round of the playoffs. No, that they are somehow even deeper. We hope they can ride the ways of injuries a bit better, but we’ll have to wait and see. With the over set at -120, we may want to hedge and take the adjustment over at 54.5 wins for +140 instead.
Against all odds, the 6ers have taken their limited assets and improved the team tremendously. Landing Paul Goerge in their cap space, they spent nothing to bring in the multi-time All-Star and All-NBA forward. He’s exactly what the team needs next to former MVP Joel Embiid and rising start Tyrese Maxey! A third star to help carry them over the hump in the playoffs. With the East in a bit of a flux, we don’t think the 6ers will have too much of a problem getting to 53 wins on the year. The main concern is Embiid’s health, as usual. If he stays healthy even for two-thirds of the year, they’ll hit this mark with no problem. Hopefully, the team can be a little more resilient with PG there now, but PG’s health hasn’t been spotless, either. Regardless, we can’t predict the future of their health, and with four teams in the East tanking hard, the top teams should be able to hit 50+ wins with no problem.
To say Milwaukee had a disappointing season would be an understatement. The team started the year on a high note, trading for NBA star Damian Lillard. Things seemed to go downhill after they fired Adrian Griffin mid-season, hiring Doc Rivers as the mid-season replacement. From there, the season was up and down, concluding with a disappointing round-one exit in the playoffs. Regardless, this team has improved, with Lillard’s former teammate Gary Trent Jr. added along with a couple of rookies. Overall, this roster looks poised to have a bounce-back year. Health will be the predominant constraint to their success as they are now one of the oldest teams in the league. That’s what concerns us the most with this team. A single long-term injury to Giannis, Lillard Lopez, or Middleton could hold them back significantly. They still have a shot of crossing over 51 wins, but it feels like a safe bet to assume the Under.
This line sits just one game above where the Cavs ended last season. Without making any major improvements, it’s reasonable to believe they'll end up in a very similar place. However, with Donavon Mitchell now locked in on contract, Garland returning from injury, and their new head coach Kenny Atkinson, this roster feels dangerous. Considering the continued strength of this team and weaker competition at the bottom of the conference, hitting 50 wins looks like a doable achievement for this team. The ability to make moves is also on the table, as they possess most of their future draft picks. With Jarrett Allen a potential trade target for teams, the Cavs could find ways to improve this roster further during the season. Overall, 48.5 feels a little low for a roster looking to prove themselves again, and it's full of explosive young talent!
Orlando looks to be on the rise; with young talent up and down the roster, they’ve improved year over year! Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs still round out an elite group all under 25. The two-way potential of this group, with their size, speed, and athleticism, makes them a severe threat to any team in the league. That’s not to say they don’t have any holes on the roster. They did little to improve their perimeter shooting, which the entire team struggled with last year. Adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency will help a little, but they’ll be looking for someone on their bench to fill that role. They can go out and make a trade, but that feels unlikely unless a star becomes available. We still think this team can hit at least the 48-win mark, if not the 50. The future is bright in Orlando, and we expect them to come out strong this year!
Indiana is riding high after their Easter Conference Finals appearance despite getting trounced by the Celtics. Following a big year for Indiana, they made plenty of changes, the biggest of which was adding Pascal Siakam to the roster. Siakam’s presence did wonders for a roster lacking size and defense. He’s given them a forward that can do a bit of everything at a high level. That isn’t even considering Tyrese Haliburton being one of the best point guards in the league last year. This team is built to score, and it shows. This win total is precisely where they finished last year at 47 wins. The difference is that they’ll have Pascal for the entire season this year, which could easily be good for a couple more wins. As always, injuries remain a looming threat for a team that has struggled with them. Ultimately, we think the over line on the Pacers is an easy take.
Maimi is a confusing team. They’ve been underwhelmed in the regular season lately but continue to make deep runs in the playoffs. Last season, they were forced into the play-in game in which Jimmy Butler got injured, leading to an early knockout in the first round. The team has also suffered from some talent drain, losing key role players without meaningful replacements. The shining beacon of this team remains head coach Erik Spoelstra, who seems to find wins regardless of the situation. This year might be one of the biggest challenges of his career, though. Relying heavily on young players to fill rotation roles, Miami needs their young guys to pop to break 45 wins. That’s why we’d suggest hedging with the under on this one. We’d love to be wrong here, but it feels like we’re in for another slow Miami regular season.
Atlanta remains one of the weirdest situations in the NBA. It's a team with so much potential and talent, yet they always seem to come up shot. Trae Young has struggled to help this team over the hump apart from one Eastern Conference Finals appearance. From that moment on, Atlanta has struggled to find success. They luckily became the number one pick in the draft this year with Zaccharie Risacher. This team is so full of talent, but it just doesn’t seem to come together. This year, we hope to see that change. Winning 37 games feels within the scope of this group. We hope to see new faces step up, especially when opening up some extra minutes following the Dejounte Murray trade. Either way, 37 wins isn’t a massive ask for a team with all the pieces to make it work. Will they put them together, though it is the question? We think they will. Finishing at 36 wins last year, one more win doesn’t seem out of the question for a roster that could finally pop.
It’s a flex year for the Raptors; they could go both ways with this roster. On the other hand, this roster is full of young talent. They could win some games with RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley. However, they probably can’t push into the playoffs this year. So we expect to see them compete early, then shut it down early to chase higher draft odds. When and how hard the tank could be up in the air, though, with so many teams in the East looking to bottom out chasing the elite talent in the draft, it could be hard to drop too far. The Raptors are stuck in the middle this year. It is too good to bottom out entirely but not good enough to compete. Ultimately, we expect this roster to struggle throughout the season, and hitting 30 wins might be doable, but hedging with the under feels right. They only won 25 games last year, with Pascal Siakam and OG on the team for part of the year. Now that the roster is all young, 30 is a high bar.
Charlotte has been one of the league's most injured teams for years. LeMelo Ball has caught the injury bug bag over the last few seasons. As one of the most essential pieces of this Charlotte team, they have struggled whenever he’s down. Hopefully, they can overcome it this year. Even if they struggle with injuries, they have a solid roster this year. Brandon Miller looked like a hit in the draft last year, and they brought back Miles Bridges to the wings, which should help this team flow. Mark Williams is also looking to return this year and make a name for himself. The former Duke center hasn’t popped like they’d hoped, but this year could finally be his year. Regardless, we have a hard time believing this team will tank again this year, and expect them to try for most of the season. With new ownership now, we’re sure they’d rather see wins over higher lottery odds. The 31-win mark feels doable for this team with some injury luck!
Chicago has been in the middle of the road for some time now; after injuries took away Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine, the team still managed to win 39 games. Still, this team seems to have finally embraced the tank after Demar DeRozan left for Sacramento in the off-season. They also traded Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, signaling they will be younger with this roster to rebuild. We don’t know their plan for Zach LaVine, who could easily upset this win total if he’s healthy, but from the trade rumors over the off-season, it seems they are looking to move him. Regardless, this has been a long time coming, as Chicago would like to chase Cooper Flagg in the draft instead of winning in the regular season. This has been a long time coming for a team seemingly trapped in the middle of the last decade. 28 wins isn’t wild, but we expect Chicago to avoid wins like the plague, considering the reward for winning the draft this year!
We’re genuinely sorry if you’re a Piston fan; this has been one of the roughest stretches of basketball in recent memory. This team has been in constant turmoil after hitting the draft and landing Cade Cunningham. They just can’t put their pieces together and fail to get any momentum with their young players. They even fired Monty Willaims after the first year of his coaching contract. This team is down severely, and their only hope for the last three years has been hitting in the draft, but despite having some of the best odds, they keep missing. Landing 5th in the draft the previous three years in a row. With another slate of high-tier talent on the horizon this year, we expect them to tank it again. They might surprise us and try to get something going, but this roster doesn’t look anywhere near a competitive NBA team. Take the under.
Washington finally pulled the trigger on the tank, trading away Bradley Beal. Since then, the team has been rough. Winning just 15 games last year was not worth much time tuning in. They do have some fun young talent, though, landing Alexandre Sarr with the 2nd pick in the draft this year. Even though this team has low expectations about their winning potential, the vibes in Washington are higher than expected. There is finally some optimism about the future, and with another year of tanking, expectations feel low. Sarr will likely need time to grow into this new role in the NBA. He looked like an unfinished product playing overseas last year in Australia. The rest of the team will be fun but not good. The Wizards will probably be active in the trade market this year with players like Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, and Corey Kisper. They’ll likely be more concerned with landing more draft picks than winning a single game this year.
This is, without a doubt, the worst roster in the league. After blowing up the team the year prior and trading away Mikal Bridges in the off-season, this team is a shell of itself. That’s the point, though. After trading for their first-round picks back from Houston, they’re not concerned with wins this year. All they want to do is win the draft lottery to bring in a homegrown name to build around. They’ll certainly do that because we could see this team winning single-digit games. It’s wild to say 20 wins might be too generous for a win total when a team plays 82 in an entire season, but for Brooklyn, it probably is. They have a few remaining solid players like Nic Claxton, Cam Jonhson, and Cam Thomas. That isn’t enough to compete in a stacked NBA. They might sneak a game or two against other bottom teams like Detroit or the Wizards, but they’re not winning a single game against teams with records over 500. Just take the under here.
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