Boston won Game 5, but it was the Cavs (playing without Donovan Mitchell) who covered the spread. The total finished at 211, 7 points higher than the closing line of 204.
Looking at the Game 5 injury report, Cleveland is listing Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen as questionable, and Donovan Mitchell as doubtful. Kristaps Porzingis (calf strain) remains out for the Celtics.
Boston will look to close the series out at home on Wednesday, and the betting odds indicate that will likely be the case.
The odds for Game 5 opened with Boston favored by 13.5 points and that number has already climbed as high as 16 with several bookmakers. The total opened at 206.5 and has held up, currently sitting at a consensus number of 206.
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +16 | +980 | o206 |
| Boston Celtics | -16 | -1250 | u205 |
We're getting a bit creative with our best bet here, but we're not laying 16+ points in the Playoffs and don't feel great about betting the full game total in what could be a blowout.
The first quarter in each of the first 4 games of this series has sailed over 51.5 points. The average first quarter total has been 63.25 with a low of 54 and a high of 74.
There's an added upside to this bet. If the game ends up getting ugly, we cash our ticket in the first quarter and tune out until Dallas vs OKC at 9:30.
Although Derrick White has struggled to score during his last few outings against Cleveland, Game 5 should swing in his favor. White shoots the 3-ball at a 41% mark at home this season, an has hit 17 of 42 (40%) downtown shots this postseason.
Shooting 10 or more times in all but two games during the playoffs, expect Derrick White to put together a solid Game 5 from beyond the arc to lead Boston to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Side Note: White has scored 24 and 25 points in back-to-back Game 5s.
Al Horford has looked sluggish during this series. He’s unable to knock down corner 3s, score against Mobley down low, and play the same type of role he’s been accustomed to with Boston in the postseason.
Hitting this PRA mark just once in the four games during this series, we aren’t expecting the veteran big man to come close to 18 PRA, especially as he’s averaged just 1.8 APG in both playoff series this postseason.
We think a tired Horford is a little sluggish in Game 5 and misses his points + rebounds + assists mark.