In what has been one of the more competitive series of the first round, the Clippers were able to win game 4 in Dallas to even this series up at 2-2. They did so behind vintage performances from James Harden and Paul George, who combined to score 66 points on 23-for-36 shooting.
No major injury stories here. Kawhi Leonard remains out for the Clippers, while Tim Hardaway Jr will miss his third consecutive game with an ankle injury.
The Mavericks opened as a 1-point favorite on the road, but early money on Dallas has already moved the consensus line to 3 points. The total opened at 210 and currently sits at 209 at most sportsbooks.
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | -3.5 | -150 | o208.5 |
| LA Clippers | +3.5 | +130 | u208.5 |
This game is the second-half of Wednesday night's TNT doubleheader and will tip at 10:00 PM EDT.
We've been riding the Dallas under train for the past month, and see no reason to derail ahead of game 5. The under has cashed in 3-of-4 games this series, and the total has not topped 209 in points in any of those 3 games.
Specifically looking at the run Dallas has been on of late, the under has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games, 9 of their last 11 road games, and each of their last 5 games against the Clippers.
The average total over the course of this series has been 203 points, and that includes the herculean offensive effort we got from the Clippers in game 4.
We think LA's offense comes back to earth tonight, allowing Dallas to control the pace of the game, and making the under our best bet for game 5.
In 14 games without Kawhi this season including playoffs, Norman Powell has averaged 12.9 PPG with increased volume. Although his shooting numbers have dropped without Leonard on the floor, we believe 30 minutes on the floor in a tightly contested Game 5 where Dallas’s focus will be on Harden and George will allow Powell to shine on the offensive end.
A player who isn’t shy of big moments, Norm becomes the x-factor for the Clips at home tonight and covers his 11.5 points prop.
While we are expecting Dallas to eliminate the number of solid looks Harden gets from downtown, his double-double threat is enough for us to buy into this boosted prop play.
Harden has failed to secure a double-double this series, but throughout the regular season, he secured a DD in just about 32% of his games.
He hasn’t gone five games without posting a double-double since February, and with the added defensive attention behind the arc due to his elite shooting numbers through four games, look for additional playmaking opportunities.