The Denver Nuggets officially own the Los Angeles Lakers. They've beat them in 10-straight, including a sweep in the 2023 NBA Playoffs and a 2-0 lead in this series. Can the Lakers finally end the streak, defend home court, and get back into this series?
This game opened with Denver favored by 1.5 points, early money on the Lakers has since moved the line 3 points to LA -1.5. The total opened at 216.5 and currently sits at 217.
The Lakers and Nuggets have played 10 regular season games since the start of 2022, and 9 of 10 went over 217 points. We get it, scoring drops in the Playoffs, but these teams have now played 6 playoff games over the past 2 seasons, and only 1 has gone under 217 points.
We have yet to see the best of either of these offenses. The Lakers are getting nothing from their bench (17 total points in 2 games), while Jamal Murray has struggled for the Nuggets (9-24 in both games).
Energized by the home crowd, we think the Lakers will dictate an uptempo game on Thursday. We should also see improved play from Murray, who averaged over 26 PPG while shooting 50% from the field in his previous 5 games against LA.
Murray went for 38 PRA in game 1 of this series, but was limited to only 28 in game 2. We think he's due to bounce back here in game 3 and he should be able to, once again, sail over this number.
Murray has averaged 36 PRA against the Lakers over the last 2 regular seasons, with that number climbing to 41 PRA per game in the Playoffs.
James went for 26/27 points in the Lakers’ two tough losses to Denver. After that post-game interview where he walked out, this could be a career-defining game as Ham and company will be putting the ball in James’s hands to prolong this series.
LeBron has hit this points prop in eight of eleven career postseason games against Denver, including three straight games. A mak-or-break game for LA, look for a massive offensive performance from the King who averages 28.1 PPG in Game 3s.