Home teams swept the board on Monday night, setting up some pivotal game 2 matchups here on Tuesday. Will we see an upset tonight? The odds seem to indicate so, with some much tighter odds in all three games:
7:30 PM EDT: Suns at Timberwolves (-3.5) - Over/Under: 212
8:30 PM EDT: Pacers at Bucks (-1.5) - Over/Under: 223.5
10:00 PM EDT: Mavericks (-2) at Clippers - Over/Under 216.5
We like the Suns to win outright and even up their series with the Timberwolves on Tuesday. While we lose 2.5 points by moving this from a spread to moneyline bet, the juice moves from -115 to +130 ($45 difference on a $100 wager).
Phoenix dominated the regular season series with Minnesota, winning all 3 games by an average of 16 points per contest. Going back even further, the Suns are 9-1 in their last 10 games against Minnesota.
Phoenix will need to contain Anthony Edwards and get off to a fast start in game 2. This should help to keep Minnesota's fans under control, making the environment much more friendly than what we saw on Saturday.
The other key factor we will be watching for is a bounceback game from Devin Booker. Jaden McDaniels gave him fits in game 1, but we think Booker gets the best of the matchup tonight. More on this later.
We are convinced that Anthony Edwards is a season or two away from becoming an MVP. The Suns and Vogel have absolutely no answer for the superstar guard after he dropped 33 points in the opening game of this series.
With the Suns most likely sending doubles to force someone else on the Wolves to defeat them in this crucial game, ANT’s assist prop is one we are targeting.
While there isn’t much historical data to back up his assist totals in the postseason, the Wolves have capable shooters to compliment double teams if they do end up coming early in this game.
As the pace slows down closer to halftime, Edwards should be able to pick apart the slow rotations on Phoenix’s defense.
Devin Booker should wake up in Game 2. After Edwards took much of the spotlight to open this series, playoff Booker is a real thing and should shine through tonight.
After a rough performance in the opening loss totaling just 25 PRA, look for his number to be closer to 38.2 PRA, which he’s averaged in his 44 career playoff games so far. With Durant struggling and Bradley Beal still finding his footing in Phoenix, this might be the game that dictates if this series is wrapped up in five games, or prolonged into next week.
We like Devin as a big-time performer tonight as a scorer and playmaker. In eight Game 2’s, Book has averaged 29.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 4.0 RPG, or 37.8 PRA.
Middleton scored 23 points in Game 1 while the Bucks dominated the Pacers from the tip-off. Expecting Game 2 to become more tightly contested, look for Middleton to become a factor as a playmaker and less as a scorer.
He averaged just 16.1 PPG without Giannis this season (7 games), and post All-Star break became more of a playmaker averaging 6.3 dimes per affair compared to 16 PPG. Look for Middleton’s scoring numbers to drop as Indiana focuses on running the wings off the 3-point line.
After Dallas shot just 30% from downtown and 39% from the field, Zubac’s PRA numbers are boosted due to his 15 rebound performance in the Clips’ dominant Game 1 performance over Dallas.
Looking ahead to Game 2, we believe the Mavs and Kidd will go small, which will leave Ivica in a tough situation where Ty Lue may have to pull him for a more agile big man.
Averaging around 25 minutes per game since the All-Star break, we expect his numbers to return back to Earth in a much closer Game 2. He averaged just 22.7 PRA in three games against the Mavs in the regular season.