4-4-1 yesterday, with a few late wins. It didn't go as I planned: Joel Embiid did play (and a lot) and De'Andre Hunter didn't, but I'll take the split and a fair profit.
Two games, seven plays. I'm going heavy double-double in the first game as the odds are pretty good for guys doing what they've shown they can do. The outlier to me (and I didn't pick him) is Bruce Brown at +500. Brown has shown the ability to go double-double when James Harden is out and he's playing 30+ minutes, but not if Mike James is getting the bulk of the run. But they don't set these odds in a vacuum so maybe Brown is getting the big minutes tonight.
All wagers and returns based on $10. Please check game time lineups before wagering.
Bucks at NETS 7:35 pm EDT, Nuggets at SUNS 10:05 pm.
3-pointers: Blake Griffin (Nets) double-double +400 (returns $50.00) Griffin went for 18 and 14 in game 1 and while I don't expect him to hit four threes again, at +400 I'm willing to to take a shot at 10 and 10.
Kyrie Irving (Nets) double-double +350 (returns $45.00) Irving will have more ball-handling responsibilities with James Harden out, unless Mike James handles the dishing, Kyrie could get to 10 assists if KD and Joe Harris are hitting shots (he did it 6 times this season – and in four other games he got 11 boards).
Khris Middleton (Bucks) double-double +350 (returns $45.00) Middleton is the same odds as Kyrie, and he's gone double-double in the previous two games.
Jrue Holiday (Bucks) double-double +285 (returns $38.50) Holiday went double-double in 5 straight games and in the last two he missed by one board in one and one assist in the other.
2-pointers: Deandre Ayton (Suns) double-double And Suns win +171 (returns $27.10) Ayton went for double-doubles in all three games against Jokic and the Nuggets. Tonight, the Nuggets are playing with a different lineup, however (no Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton) so I think the Suns may take the first game at home.
Devin Booker (Suns) Over 2.5 made threes +130 (returns $23.00) In Most games, Booker does not make 3+ threes. But I watched him hit EIGHT in the clincher against the Lakers and I can't not take +130 for over 2.5.
Monte Morris (Nuggets) Over 4.5 assists +130 (returns $23.00) Morris has been a stud off the bench in the playoffs, playing starter's minutes and getting others involved. In the Portland series, his assist number were 4, 5, 7, 5, 4, 5, 9.
Winners:
3-pointers: Clint Capela (Hawks) double-double And Hawks win +210 (returns $31.00) The Hawks won, Capela had 11 points and got his 10th rebound in the final two seconds of the game..
2-pointers: Reggie Jackson (Clippers) Over 14.5 points And Clippers win +150 (returns $25.00) I thought this was a sure L, but Jackson scored 8 points in the final 4:16 of the game to get to 15 – and the Clippers won by 15.
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) Over 3.5 made threes +140 (returns $24.00) Luka went 5-11 from three.
Steals: Mavericks at CLIPPERS Over 211 -112 (returns $19.00) Clippers won 126-111 = 237.
Losers:
3-pointers: Ben Simmons (Sixers) triple-double +500 (returns $60.00) Simmons went for 17-4-10. He probably would have gotten more rebounds if Embiid didn't play.
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) Over 32.5 points And Mavericks win +400 (returns $50.00) Luka scored 46, but the Mavs didn't win.
2-pointers: Paul George (Clippers) Over 9.5 rebounds +112 (returns $22.50) George had 10 assists in this game and Kawhi had the 10 rebounds. George only had 6.
Free Throws: Tobias Harris (Sixers) Over 37.5 points, rebounds, assists -106 (returns $19.50) Harris went for 20-10-3 in defeat.
Cancelled:
Free Throws: De'Andre Hunter (Hawks) Over 12.5 points -105 (returns $19.60) Hunter was a game-time scratch due to a knee injury.
Playoffs:
$80 wagered (4-4), $99.00 returned
Day 16: +$19.00
Total: +$179.20 (43-49 off 92 $10 wagers)
Play-ins:
Total: -$44.60 (4-10 off 14 $10 wagers)
Regular Season:
Total: +20.65 (252-326 off 578 $10 wagers)